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Many have noted that while there has always been a nativist/racist streak in American politics, it has never gotten as far in a major political party as Trump is getting now. That’s true but mostly that’s because of an assassin’s bullet.
We forget how well segregationist George Wallace was doing in 1972 in the Democratic nomination process before and, to some degree after, he was shot. Not every state had public primaries or caucuses back then but get this:
Wallace overwhelmingly won Florida with 41 percent on March 14. One of the next contested primaries was the progressive state of Wisconsin. George McGovern won but Wallace came in second, beating liberal champions Hubert Humphrey and Edmund Muskie.
Then the month of May begins. From May 2–15 this happens:
Indiana — Wallace gets 41 percent, a close second to Humphrey.
Ohio — Humphrey wins. Wallace is not on the ballot.
Tennessee — Wallace is on the ballot and wins with 68 percent
North Carolina — Wallace wins with 50 percent
Nebraska — McGovern wins
West Virginia — Humphrey wins. Wallace gets 33 percent.
Ohio — Humphrey wins. Wallace is not on the ballot.
Tennessee — Wallace is on the ballot and wins with 68 percent
North Carolina — Wallace wins with 50 percent
Nebraska — McGovern wins
West Virginia — Humphrey wins. Wallace gets 33 percent.
Then Wallace is shot on May 15. Despite that on May 16:
Maryland — Wallace wins with 39 percent
Michigan — Wallace wins with 51 percent
Michigan — Wallace wins with 51 percent
After that it was clear that Wallace was seriously injured and out of the race. Despite that, he wins 20 percent in Oregon, 29% in New Mexico. All in all, despite entering late and leaving early, Wallace ends up with 23.5% of the vote compared to 25.7% for Humphrey and 25.3% for McGovern.
The point is: Wallace was able to show that his message of racial grievance had enormous appeal in white working class areas throughout the country, not just in the south.
Ultimately, the Democratic Party ruptured over the very issues Wallace was championing — race and crime. The party moved to the left on civil rights and over the course of the next few decades lost a major block of voters. The loss of the south hurt them electorally but also freed them of the persistent dilemma of how to be a progressive party when so many of its leaders and voters were segregationists. Republicans came to benefit from the addition of this new voting block, and for years avoided the dissonance of being the Party of Lincoln and the former-Wallace voters. Trump’s success is now raising the same set of issues in the Republican Party that Wallace did in the Democratic Party.
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