Senate Republicans staged their own startling upset by keeping their majority intact. | POLITICO Illustration / Getty
Republicans hold the Senate in stunner
GOP candidates notched a string of swing-state wins despite an awful map.
Republicans have clinched a dramatic, unexpected victory in the battle for the Senate.
With GOP presidential Donald Trump moving toward a stunning win, Senate Republicans staged their own startling upset by keeping their majority intact, despite a political landscape that strongly favored Democrats.
Tuesday's outcome for Senate Republicans may only be slightly less momentous for the GOP than Trump's looming victory. It gives them control of the Supreme Court for years to come, a huge issue for the conservative base. When combined with a favorable map in 2018, Republicans could be on the verge of building a majority that could last well the into next decade. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) could go down as one of the most successful Republican leaders in years, while Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will leave office with his hopes of a Democratic majority crushed by his arch-rivals Trump and McConnell.
It was not the night Democrats had dreamed of for two years.
With GOP incumbents scoring huge victories in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida, while holding a big lead in Missouri, Republicans are set to begin the 115th Congress with a majority.
And Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey has surged ahead of Democrat Katie McGinty in by 25,000 votes, another surprising outcome.
New Hampshire may be closest race of all, with both sides saying the race between incumbent GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan was a true cliffhanger. A call in that race may not come Tuesday, with a recount looming ever more likely. Democrats say they surpassed 2012 turnout in Durham, a key county. The University of New Hampshire is located there. Ayotte leads by less than a half-percentage point with more than four-fifths of precincts counted.
Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain also won, fending off a challenge by Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.
Tonight's outcome for Senate Republicans may only be slightly less momentous for the GOP than Trump's looming victory. The lone Democratic pickup of the night so far is in Illinois, where Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth defeated Republican Sen. Mark Kirk in the solidly blue state.
In Nevada, Reid was able to keep his Senate seat in the Democratic column, throwing the full weight of his vaunted political machine behind former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto against GOP Rep. Joe Heck. Cortez Masto's win was one of few bright spots of the night for Democrats.
But Duckworth and Cortez Masto's feats weren't nearly enough to offset a dismal night for Senate Democrats.
In Indiana, former Democratic Evan Bayh was thumped by GOP Rep. Todd Young, costing the Democrats a major pickup opportunity. It also marked the end of a political dynasty that had dominated Indiana Democratic politics for decades.
The GOP's success extended to the House, as the party headed off steep losses and ensured Republicans will have full control of Capitol Hill. Democrats had hoped to pick up a dozen seats or more, yet those gains failed to materialize as voters energized by Trump's candidacy turned out in force to reward Republicans up and down the ballot.
Senate Republicans always knew 2016 would be a tough cycle. They were defending 24 seats versus only 10 for Democrats. Democrats snared some strong recruits, getting their favored candidates in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida, among other states.
Many of the tight races were also in presidential battleground states, further complicating the Senate outlook. And Republicans were of two minds about Trump: His unorthodox campaign could bring a wave of new voters to the polls and buoy endangered Senate Republicans, or his lack of a real campaign organization could prove to be a huge drag for them.
No one imagined how big of a boon Trump would be.
After Trump's erratic debate performances and the airing of the “Access Hollywood” video, some Democrats openly mused about picking up as many as nine seats.
Yet Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton presented her own set of huge challenges for other Democratic candidates and incumbents.
To the dismay of Senate Democrats, Clinton chose to present Trump as outside the GOP mainstream instead of a natural outgrowth of the party’s trends over the last decade. This gave Republican candidates and incumbents an opportunity to put distance between themselves and Trump, which many gladly did. The Clinton campaign only reversed its position and tried to tie Trump more closely to down-ballot Republicans later in the race.
The scandal over Clinton’s private email server as secretary of State was also a blessing for Senate Republicans. In July, FBI Director James Comey said neither Clinton or her top aides would be indicted over their handling of classified materials, but he called Clinton “extremely careless.” It became a rallying cry for Senate Republicans.
Then, with just 11 days to go in the race, Comey dropped another political bombshell: the Clinton email probe would be reopened after the discovery of hundreds of thousands of new emails on former Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner’s (N.Y.) laptop. Weiner is married to top Clinton aide Huma Abedin, and he is under criminal investigation himself for allegedly sending sexually inappropriate messages to a teenager. While Comey later said no new evidence had been found, the damage had been done. Republicans believed that Comey might have saved the Senate for them.
Both sides caught some breaks as well. In Ohio, former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland proved to be a weak challenger, allowing incumbent GOP Sen. Rob Portman to skate to reelection. In Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio’s decision to run despite promising to retire during his presidential campaign was a big plus for Republicans. He easily defeated Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy.
In Indiana, Bayh jumped into the race after being heavily recruited by presumptive Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. Despite having $10 million in the bank, Bayh proved to be a lackluster candidate, dogged by the disclosure of his internal Senate calendars, which showed him job-hunting in 2010 even before his term was up. He was dragged down by stories questioning his residency and lobbying career.
There's been one constant theme in Senate races this cycle: money, money, and ever more money. For the first time ever, more money was spent on the Senate races than the presidential campaign, which shocked even party insiders.
Candidates, the national parties, and outside groups have spent more than $800 million on TV ads in the battleground states alone. That doesn’t count tens of millions more in get-out-the-vote efforts, direct mail, data, staff salaries, and myriad other expenses.
The Pennsylvania Senate race, featuring incumbent GOP Sen. Patrick Toomey against Democrat Katie McGinty, will shatter all records as the most expensive Senate race in history. Combined spending by the two candidates and outside groups topped $120 million several weeks ago. New Hampshire’s fight between Ayotte drew almost $100 million, while the Nevada race eclipsed $80 million.
One long-running mystery was solved in Pennsylvania: After long refusing to say how he would vote in the presidential race, Toomey announced Tuesday evening he had voted for Trump. Toomey was clinging to a small lead with 98 percent of precincts reporting.
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