Nothing Will Persuade White Evangelicals to Support Impeachment

"Regardless of how impeachment plays out in the coming months, the proceedings are not likely to bring any semblance of political unity or compel committed Trump supporters to change their mind. Even if the president goes down, some Americans have apparently decided that they’re willing to go down with him."

About this website

THEATLANTIC.COM

Nothing Will Persuade White Evangelicals to Support Impeachment

New polling suggests that Trump’s base is totally unified behind the president, no matter what investigations might reveal.

President Donald Trump famously once said that he wouldn’t lose support even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York City. As his presidency enters its most dramatic phase yet, just one year ahead of the 2020 election, he might be right.

In mid-September, 94 percent of Republicans opposed impeachment. A month later—after the news about Trump’s fateful phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and after House Democrats formally launched an impeachment inquiry—their views are essentially unchanged. Even with these revelations, 93 percent of Republicans remained opposed to impeachment in mid-October, according to data released today from the Public Religion Research Institute. Of all Republican voters, two subgroups stand out for their unwavering support of Trump: those who primarily get their news from Fox, and white evangelical Christians.

It’s easy to forget now, but during the 2016 primary, white Christians were intensely divided over Trump. Many religious voters in deep-red pockets of the country preferred Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who is more clearly one of their own, or Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who has championed socially conservative policies, over a reality-television star who once incorrectly referred to a book of the Bible as “Two Corinthians” during a speech at an evangelical university. But since 2016, these voters, along with Republicans generally, have consolidated behind the president. According to the new PRRI data, one year after Trump’s election, 59 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would prefer for Trump to remain the party’s nominee in 2020. Two years after his election, 66 percent said the same thing. And this fall, 72 percent said they want their party to keep Trump. Within this group, white evangelicals were among the voters most likely to want Trump on the ballot, at 82 percent.

A significant portion of Trump’s Republican supporters are open about their belief in his infallibility: 42 percent of Republicans said there is virtually nothing the president could do to lose their approval. Among Republicans who cited Fox News as their primary news source, this number was even higher, at 55 percent. And Trump’s most steadfast supporters are also most likely to condone his behavior: Nearly two-thirds of white evangelicals said Trump has not hurt the dignity of the presidency. By contrast, majorities of all other religious groups said Trump has damaged the image of the office.

These numbers reinforce the idea that some of Trump’s supporters have come to see American politics as an all-out war. Whatever reservations they may have had about Trump when he first ran for office have apparently been soothed, either by his full-throated defense of his supporters’ priorities or because these voters resent what they see as unrelenting attacks against him and his administration. Trump’s evangelical surrogates have said as much. The Texas megachurch pastor Robert Jeffress recently said that Democrats were inviting a “civil war” by pursuing impeachment proceedings.

Hard-core Trump supporters are not representative of America, and they’re not the only voters who have hardened their political position in the past few years. Only 29 percent of registered voters told PRRI that they would vote for Trump in the 2020 election, no matter who becomes the Democratic nominee. By comparison, 40 percent of registered voters said they would support the Democratic candidate no matter who it is, while 29 percent said their ballot remains up for the taking.

Regardless of how impeachment plays out in the coming months, the proceedings are not likely to bring any semblance of political unity or compel committed Trump supporters to change their mind. Even if the president goes down, some Americans have apparently decided that they’re willing to go down with him.

LINK

America Is Divided by Education

'I love the poorly educated': why white college graduates are deserting Trump

America Is Divided by Education

The gulf between the party identification of white voters with college degrees and those without is growing rapidly. Trump is widening it.

• ADAM HARRIS
 
•  NOV 7, 2018

One of the most striking patterns in yesterday’s election was years in the making: a major partisan divide between white voters with a college degree and those without one.

According to exit polls, 61 percent of non-college-educated white voters cast their ballots for Republicans while just 45 percent of college-educated white voters did so. Meanwhile 53 percent of college-educated white voters cast their votes for Democrats compared with 37 percent of those without a degree.

The diploma divide, as it’s often called, is not occurring across the electorate; it is primarily a phenomenon among white voters. It’s an unprecedented divide, and is in fact a complete departure from the diploma divide of the past. Non-college-educated white voters used to solidly belong to Democrats, and college-educated white voters to Republicans. Several events over the past six decades have caused these allegiances to switch, the most recent being the candidacy, election, and presidency of Donald Trump.

Last night’s results confirm that the diploma divide is likely here to stay—especially if the GOP maintains its alignment with Trump and the nationalist, anti-immigrant sentiments he hangs his hat on. The gap is likely to be one of the most powerful forces shaping American politics for decades to come.

The democratic and republican Parties looked a lot different in 1952, when the American National Election Studies—surveys of voters conducted before and after presidential elections—were in their infancy. The Republicans, to some extent, were still regarded as the party of Lincoln, even though they had shifted their focus to courting southern white voters, causing black people to leave the party. Meanwhile, the Democrats were the party of a coalition that pushed for social services—the party of the New Deal. There were far fewer college-educated Americans at the time, but the white Americans who did have degrees tended to vote Republican, and those who didn't sided with the Democrats by a significant margin.

This split was relatively stable for decades and then, steadily, it began to change. “The shift in whites without a college degree away from the Democratic Party begins as the Democratic Party becomes identified as the party of civil rights,” starting in the 1960s, Robert P. Jones, the CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, told me. Disaffected white southern Democrats, in particular, fled in droves.

Party realignment doesn't happen overnight. Just because some voters swing across the aisle in one election doesn't mean they’ll quit the party they've identified with their entire lives. Still, strong support for the Democrats among whites without a college degree, borne out of economic incentives—and racial resentment—began to wane. In their book, The Rise of Southern Republicans, the scholars Merle Black and Earl Black call this shift the “Great White Switch.”

From the mid-1990s to 2008, the diploma divide was small, if not negligible. Even though the Democrats had become the party of civil rights and a broad, multicultural coalition, they were also still the party of unions, which were largely made up of non-degree-holding whites. Therefore, white people with and without college degrees were equally as likely to be Democrats or Republicans.

But in 2008, the election of Barack Obama, a black man, signaled that the Democrats were becoming the party of progressive racial politics. “Obama’s presidency simplifies the politics of race,” Michael Tesler, an associate professor of political science at UC Irvine, says. “If you were a low-educated white, you were much more likely to know about the partisan differences on race [after Obama] than you were before.”

That change didn’t show up in the party-affiliation data right away, but that’s common, Tesler says. It often takes more than one election for people to switch their party identification. But by 2012, white voters without a college degree were distinctly more likely to vote Republican than those with college degrees.

Read: The women who gave Trump the White House could tip the midterms to Democrats

In the 2016 election, 48 percent of college-educated white voters voted for Trump, compared with 66 percent of non-college-educated white voters. A Marist poll in October of this year found that 55 percent of non-college-educated white voters approved of the job Trump was doing, compared with just 39 percent of college-educated white voters. When Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh squeaked through a Senate confirmation hearing with a sexual assault allegation in tow, 54 percent of non-college-educated white voters supported him, compared with 38 percent who had gone to college. And the partisan diploma divide held steady last night, reflecting a divide in values between those with degrees and those without.

There’s a question that splits Americans neatly in two. Every year, on its American Values Survey, the Public Religion Research Institute asks Americans whether they “think American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the better, or has it mostly changed for the worse,” since the 1950s. 

Fifty percent of Americans say that it’s gotten better in this year’s poll, and 47 percent say that it has gotten worse.

But for white voters, the answer to that question is split by education level. Fifty-eight percent of college-educated whites this year say that America has gotten better since 1950, while 57 percent of non-college-educated whites say that it’s gotten worse. When President Trump says “Make America great again,” the againis instructive. He’s capitalizing on the nostalgia that non-college-educated white voters have for America’s past. “That harkening back to a supposed golden age where things were better has a really, really strong appeal for whites without a college degree,” Jones said.

That nostalgia, however, is for a time when black Americans and other minority groups had significantly fewer civil rights. And a Republican rhetoric that centers a longing for an era of white prosperity, rife with racist violence against black people, is why it’s impossible to understand the diploma divide without accounting for racial resentment. Needless to say, black Americans and other minority groups aren’t as keen on returning to the past.

Read: The nationalist’s delusion

When researchers control for voter attitudes on race in addition to white voters’ education level, Tesler says, the diploma divide disappears. No other factor, he says, explains the education gap as well—not economic anxiety, ideology, income, or gender.

David N. Smith, a professor at the University of Kansas, came to a similar conclusion when he and Eric Hanley took a dive into the 2016 American National Election Survey. They found that demographic data such as education are important predictors of which party someone votes for. But “when you bring the attitudes variables into account as well, what emerges is that attitudes loom even larger than demographics,” he told me.

Here’s how he put it: If you look at white people who voted for Trump—both those with college degrees and those without—and identify everybody with a high level of resentment toward minorities, women, and Muslims, as well as those who want an arrogant, assertive leader, there’s almost no one left. The vast majority of Trump voters share those sentiments, the researchers found, regardless of education level.

The GOP has come around to Trump. As my colleague McKay Coppins wrote, “Trump’s conquest of the Republican Party is complete, and the former ‘fringe’ has become so thoroughly intertwined with the ‘establishment’ that the two are virtually indistinguishable.”

The growing diploma divide is less a result of non-college-educated white voters becoming Republicans, and more of college-educated white voters finding that they can’t fully support the party anymore. “What's happened since 2016 is that the low-educated whites have kind of plateaued in their support for the Republicans,” Tesler says. “But you've seen this trend increase [of] high-educated whites [moving] towards the Democrats.”

Smith told me that from 2015 to 2017, the Weidenbaum Center at Washington University in St. Louis conducted a monthly panel survey—where the same statistically significant number of people are interviewed each month—that cataloged Republican attitudes toward Republican candidates. Over time, those who supported Ted Cruz, who called Trump a “sniveling coward” during the campaign, and those who supported Marco Rubio, who called him a “con man,” tended to come around to Trump.

But the voters that stand out, Smith said, are those who initially supported John Kasich. “They, in many instances, agree with Trump on policy issues, but the best data indicates that they are uncomfortable with him personally,” he said. “There are key aspects of his rhetorical style, of his governing style, that they don't like.”

Kasich has been on a crusade in recent weeks combatting the Republican rhetoric around the migrant caravan. “The Lord doesn’t want” America to build walls around around itself, he told CNN. And that wasn’t the first time he’d expressed concern about the state of the Republican party, and its rhetoric, as it has inched closer and closer to Trump. “If the party can't be fixed,” Kasich told Jake Tapper in October 2017, “then I’m not going to be able to support the party. Period. That's the end of it.”

Jones argues that the logic is simple. “The risk that the Republican Party runs by becoming the party that’s opposed to immigration, that’s worried about the country becoming more diverse,” he said, “is that they will turn off college-educated whites.”

But the consequences of the diploma divide are not just evident in the demographics on Election Day. Hidden in that gap is a threat to higher education itself. Last year, Pew issued a sobering survey. 

“Republicans have soured on higher education,” the survey declared, and it threw people into a frenzy.

Sixty-seven percent of Republicans, the survey found, had “some” to “little” confidence in colleges as institutions. A number of factors contribute to this distrust, the rising cost of tuition and the perception of a liberal bent at colleges among them. And if one major party believes that higher education is an engine of liberal indoctrination, and that party’s voters are increasingly likely not to have attended college, the political benefits of an anti–higher education stance are obvious.

Read: American higher education hits a dangerous milestone

That puts the budget lines for public colleges, in particular, at risk. Decades of funding cuts by state governments have already hit the institutions hard. And these cuts, in turn, have driven an increase in tuition costs and more animosity toward higher education. As Michael Grunwald recently wrote in Politico, “The next big Republican culture war will be a war on college.”

As the Republican party continues to cozy up to Trump, whose political career began by questioning the legitimacy of the first black president, and who rests his laurels on hostile anti-immigrant sentiments, more moderate Republicans—who, often, are college educated—will likely continue to flee. And the GOP will have even less of a reason to try to cater to the college set, or to embrace higher education–friendly policies. The diploma divide is wide, and the closer Republicans embrace Trump, the wider it may get.



LINK

SCOTT DWORKIN: LENINGRAD LINDSEY GRAHAM, MOSCOW MITCH MCCONNELL & OTHER CORRUPT REPUBLICANS

Scott Dworkin‏Verified account @funder Aug 1

EXCLUSIVE: Lindsey Graham’s super PAC got over $800,000 from a guy who made billions off Russian oil companies. My exclusive research report is below, which includes video & photo evidence I found of Graham and Dershowitz with the donor. #LeningradLindsey

Scott Dworkin‏Verified account @funder

EXCLUSIVE: Lindsey Graham’s super PAC got over $800,000 from a guy who made billions off Russian oil companies. My exclusive research report is below, which includes video & photo evidence I found of Graham and Dershowitz with the donor. #LeningradLindsey

2:35 PM - 1 Aug 2019

Here’s a photo I found of Alan Dershowitz & Sen. Lindsey Graham with a Putin-linked billionaire who made his fortune off Russian oil. He gave a million to Trump's inauguration, $800K to Graham. $2.5M to McConnell, $1.5M to Rubio & $1.1M to Scott Walker. Mueller is investigating.

2. New conversation
   
   
   
   Mass Disturbance‏ @MassD 2 Jul 2018
   
   Replying to @funder
   GOP campaigns took $7.35 million from oligarch linked to Russia https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2017/08/03/tangled-web-connects-russian-oligarch-money-gop-campaigns …
   

Moscow Mitch's Mom‏ @MoscowMitchsMom 10h10 hours ago

Replying to @LynSonyaA @rslugs202

And then there's.... this could get expensive....#MoscowMitch #LeningradLindsey

Lesley  ❄️ 💪 👀‏ @lesley3225 9h9 hours ago

#MiscowMitch #LeningradLindsey you have to ask yourself what does Putin have on these two??? Something is not right

1 reply5 retweets13 likes

Branko Marcetic | Why They Hate Bernie

26 July 19

---

A Nice Way to Panic Over Funding

If we keep going at this pace we will fail financially. But we don’t want to offend anyone, so we are looking for feel-good way to panic.

The reality is that we need to pick up the pace.

Please.

Marc Ash
Founder, Reader Supported News

Sure, I'll make a donation!

---

Update My Monthly Donation

If you would prefer to send a check:
Reader Supported News
PO Box 2043
Citrus Hts, CA 95611

26 July 19

It's Live on the HomePage Now:
Reader Supported News

GOT TO MOVE YOU SOMEHOW: We can't provide service to a readership of this size without a budget. From this group we get the highest demand and the least assistance. We have to move you. We have done it with readers for nearly 2 decades, but not this group. Very unfortunate all ways round. Marc Ash, Founder Reader Supported News

Sure, I'll make a donation!

---

Branko Marcetic | Why They Hate Bernie 

Branko Marcetic, Jacobin
Marcetic writes: "Remember the frenzied, paranoid style of right-wing anti-Clintonism? The lies, the conspiracy theories, the deeply personal disgust? Well, it's back - only this time it's migrated to the Democratic Party and its unhinged attacks on Bernie Sanders."
READ MORE


Sen. Mitch McConnell. (photo: Aaron P. Bernstein/Reuters) 

Senate Report: All 50 States Were Targeted by Russian Interference Ahead of 2016 Elections

Lisa Mascaro and Mary Clare Jalonick, Associated Press

Excerpt: "On Thursday a report from the Senate Intelligence committee concluded all 50 states were targeted in 2016 and ahead of the 2018 election 'top election vulnerabilities remained.' But there's no help coming from Congress."

EXCERPT: 

The Senate Democratic leader, Chuck Schumer of New York, called inaction by Congress a “disgrace” and pledged to keep pushing for votes. Mueller’s testimony “should be a wake-up call,” he said.

“Leader McConnell, let me read you that sentence,” Schumer said from the Senate floor, citing Mueller’s testimony Wednesday before the House committees about Russian interference. “‘They’re doing it as we sit here, and they expect to do it in the next campaign.'”

READ MORE

FBI director Christopher Wray. (photo: Getty)

FBI Director: White-Supremacist Violence Accounts for Majority of Domestic-Terrorism Arrests Since Last October
Mairead McArdle, Yahoo News
McArdle writes: "FBI director Christopher Wray told Congress on Tuesday that the majority of domestic-terrorism arrests since last October have been linked to white supremacy."
READ MORE

Rep. Jackie Speier. (photo: Getty)

Democratic Rep. Jackie Speier | Dogs in Kennels Are Treated Better Than Migrants I Saw Detained in Texas
Jackie Speier, NBC News
Speier writes: "If dogs were kenneled in the overcrowded, unhealthy conditions we observed at the Border Patrol Station, the Humane Society would immediately shut it down."
READ MORE

Rep. Ilhan Omar. (photo: Al Jazeera)

ALSO SEE: Marco Rubio Shares Doctored Video of Ilhan Omar

Republicans Are Trying to Smear Ilhan Omar With a Ridiculously Doctored Video
Rafi Schwartz, Splinter
Schwartz writes: "The right-wing smear machine revved up again on Thursday, continuing President Donald Trump's racist attacks on Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar by promoting a heavily edited video they're spinning as a smoking gun to show that Omar's the REAL racist." 

 

EXCERPT [THIS IS ARMED WHITE DOMESTIC TERRORISM]: 

Just this week, FBI Director Christopher Wray testified that the majority of domestic terrorism arrests made this past year were related to white supremacists, a trend Omar was clearly drawing on in making her point about conservative hypocrisy.

Oddly enough, I haven’t seen any denizens of the right-wing fever swamp demand Wray apologize for being racist. I wonder why?

READ MORE

Israel's demolition of Palestinian homes has been condemned by the European Union. (photo: AFP)

Trump Administration Blocks UN Vote to Condemn Israeli Demolition of Palestinian Homes
Lily Puckett, The Independent
Puckett writes: "The United States blocked an attempt to get the United Nations Security Council to condemn Israel's demolition of Palestinian homes on the outskirts of Jerusalem, diplomats said."
READ MORE

Peter Esegon, 47, one of the primary rhino caretakers at the Ol Pejeta conservancy in central Kenya, relaxes with Najin and Fatu as the sun sets. (photo: Justin Mott )

'No Man's Land': The Plight of the Northern White Rhino
Annaliese Nurnberg and Justin Mott, The Washington Post
Excerpt: "The last male northern white rhino, Sudan, died in March 2018, leaving behind his daughter and granddaughter, Najin and Fatu, the last of their subspecies."
READ MORE

---

Contribute to RSN

Update My Monthly Donation