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GOOD MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. And welcome to a special Election Day edition of Massachusetts Playbook. Where are you watching the results come in tonight?
HERE'S WHAT I'M WATCHING...
— Who turns out? Secretary of State Bill Galvin expects 2.4 million Massachusetts voters will cast ballots in this year's midterm, including the 584,000 early voters. We have around 4.5 million registered voters in Massachusetts, so the expected turnout is about half of that. Stay tuned on whether turnout ends up being higher — especially among newly registered voters — like we're seeing in other states.
Baker's margin — He's America's most popular governor, he's leading in the polls and he's polling better with Democrats than his Democratic opponent. So what's Baker's winning margin going to be? "Massachusetts voters are perfectly content with moderate Republican governors and they have been forever," political analyst Peter Ubertaccio told me yesterday. But can Baker beat former Gov. Bill Weld's 71 percent win in 1994? The "Trump effect" of Democrats turning out because they're fed up with Washington could keep Baker below Weld's storied margin, Ubertaccio says.
The Warren report — Sen. Elizabeth Warren already said she's taking a look at running for president, and the way she went after Geoff Diehl on all things Trump made clear this election is a warm-up for 2020. I'll be looking to see what percentage of the vote she pulls in tonight, and further down the line, whether Massachusetts voters warm to her possible presidential ambitions.
The Trumpers — Despite Baker's electoral success as a moderate, we've got a couple of candidates on the ballot today who embrace President Trump more willingly. Perhaps the most talked about is Geoff Diehl, the Republican taking on Sen. Elizabeth Warren. He was part of the president's Massachusetts campaign, and Warren has labeled him a "rubber stamp" for Trump's agenda. The other candidate embracing the president's policies is hard-line Republican attorney from Bourne, Jay McMahon. He's running for attorney general and rips on Attorney General Maura Healey's assault weapons ban. I'm interested in the kind of numbers Diehl and McMahon get. Remember when far-right Republican for governor Scott Lively pulled in 36 percent of the vote in the Republican primary? Now we'll get a look at something close to a baseline, pro-Trump GOP vote in Massachusetts.
The new additions to the delegation — A congressional seat is open in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lori Trahan, Republican Rick Green and Independent Michael Mullen are on the ballot. Another interesting congressional race worth keeping an eye on is in the state's 9th District, where Rep. Bill Keating faces Republican challenger Peter Tedeschi. The two districts encompass some of the state's more conservative pockets, and if there are any surprises tonight, they could happen here, MassInc pollster Steve Koczela told me. Democrat Ayanna Pressley is running unopposed in the 7th District after unseating Rep. Mike Capuano in the primary.
The ballot questions — Does Question 1, the nurse patient staffing level question, prevail despite weakening public support shown in polling over the last several weeks? How many people vote "yes" on Question 3, and what's the party breakdown?
How do Moulton's Serve America candidates do? — Rep. Seth Moulton has been raising money and traveling for Democratic candidates endorsed by his Serve America PAC this cycle. How many of Moulton's more than 70 picks win tonight?
Clark's Blue Wave — Rep. Katherine Clark has spent the last two years helping Democrats across the country flip their districts from red to blue. I'm looking to see how many of these candidates are successful. If we do see a blue wave, Clark will have had a hand in its success.
The Democrats coming for the Beacon Hill GOP — There's a group of Democratic women taking on Republicans on Beacon Hill. I'll keep an eye out for challengers Becca Rausch, Tram Nguyen and Katie McBrine. It's hard to beat incumbents, but these women may capture the support of voters who are heading to the polls because they're fed up with the Trump administration, and those who have become more involved in local politics since the 2016 election.
Year of the woman? — If all 83 women running for the legislature win tonight, they'd raise the percentage of female lawmakers to 39 percent, according a report from the Center for Women in Politics and Public Policy. That's not exactly gender parity, but a greater number of women running and winning will change the makeup of the talent pool for committee chairmanships, leadership positions and candidacies for higher office.
Eye on 2020 — Will anybody announce a presidential run bright and early on Wednesday morning, or will we get some time to rest? New Hampshire political strategist Jim Demers says you can count on potential candidates coming to New Hampshire for the rest of the year, but formal announcements likely won't come until 2019. Translation: Catch up on the new season of House of Cards while you can.
Can't get enough of election night? The POLITICO team in D.C. and across the country will have the latest results with updating House and Senate maps throughout the night, as well as live analysis where we'll be taking your questions and talking about the biggest takeaways.
Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: smurray@politico.com.
TODAY — Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. across the state. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Rep. Niki Tsongas, Rep. Katherine Clark,Democratic 7th District nominee Ayanna Pressley and candidates for governor and lieutenant governor Jay Gonzalez and Quentin Palfrey gather for an election night event at the Fairmont Copley Plaza with members of the Yes on 3 campaign, Attorney General Maura Healey, Treasurer Deborah Goldberg, Auditor Suzanne Bump, and Suffolk County DA nominee Rachael Rollins.
MA3 candidate Lori Trahan holds an election night event in Lowell. Senate GOP hopeful Geoff Diehl holds an election night party in Whitman. The Harvard Kennedy School of Government holds an election night celebration in Cambridge. Clark and state Sen. Joseph Boncore hold a get out the vote lunch at Santarpio's in Boston. Gonzalez attends a rally in Chelsea. State Senate hopeful Becca Rausch holds an election night event in Needham. Massachusetts Democratic Party Chairman Gus Bickford holds an Election Day media availability.
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 | DATELINE BEACON HILL |
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- "Big turnout could be in store in Mass. on Election Day," by Milton J. Valencia, Boston Globe: "Close to 600,000 voters took advantage of early voting in Massachusetts ahead of Tuesday, an impressive turnout that could signal heavy interest in this year's midterm elections, said Secretary of State William F. Galvin on Monday. Galvin estimated that at least 2.4 million of the state's 4.5 million registered voters would ultimately cast their ballot in this year's election — significant turnout, he said, for a state with few competitive races."
THE MASSACHUSETTS FISCAL ALLIANCE CAN ALWAYS BE COUNTED ON FOR LAST MINUTE INFLAMMATORY NONSENSE AND MUD SLINGING. LET'S REMEMBER THAT THEIR DONORS ARE ANONYMOUS, THE TACTICS QUESTIONABLE, THEIR INFORMATION ALWAYS SKEWED.
- "GALVIN DISMISSES CLAIMS ABOUT RETURNED MAIL FROM VOTER ADDRESSES," by Katie Lannan, State House News Service: "Secretary of State William Galvin on Monday dismissed a conservative group's effort to flag potentially incorrect voter addresses as 'political propaganda.' The Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance on Oct. 23 asked Galvin's office to investigate undeliverable letters it sent to 571 people in eight communities who were recorded as voting in the primaries, calling the returned mail "an indication that something could possibly be awry." The letters were mailed to addresses in Lawrence, Haverhill, Brockton, Framingham, Methuen, Lowell, Milford and Franklin."
- "DEMPSEY STARTING OWN FIRM AFTER LEAVING ML STRATEGIES," by Matt Murphy, State House News Service: "Just a little over a year after ending his legislative career for a high-profile lobbying job at ML Strategies, Brian Dempsey has left the Boston firm to start his own consulting business with two former aides. ... The new firm is called Dempsey, Lucey and Associates and has office space at 11 Beacon St., just steps from the State House where Dempsey spent more than 26 years representing Haverhill."
- "Massachusetts Finds More Ways To Lead The Nation On Gun Violence Prevention," by Nick Wing, Huffington Post:"Massachusetts already has the nation's strongest gun laws and lowest firearm death rate. But its lawmakers recently boosted the state's commitment to an emerging form of gun violence prevention, providing $10 million for programs specifically designed to stem the bloodshed in communities where shootings are most common. Moved in part by gun-related tragedies over the past year, the state legislature approved a funding bill in October that included initiatives that seek to prevent school-based gun violence."
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| ON THE STUMP |
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- "As Election Day approaches, candidates are racing to the finish line," by Joshua Miller, Matt Stout and Victoria McGrane, Boston Globe: "Hoping voters will hearken to their pleas, the candidates for governor and Senate raced around Massachusetts Monday, exuding confidence, pressing palms, and making their last, best pitches hours before Election Day. Or as Governor Charlie Baker put it coming out a black SUV to greet voters here at the venerable Owl Diner: 'Showtime!' With surveys finding Baker and Senator Elizabeth Warren with big leads in their respective races, both still leaned hard into retail politicking ahead of Tuesday's elections. Meanwhile, their underdog opponents said the groundswells of support they've been feeling may yet prove the pollsters and pundits dead wrong."
- "Eight Races To Watch In Massachusetts," by Mike Deehan, WGBH News: "Tuesday will mark one of the most nationally-charged elections in recent Massachusetts history, with voters asked to decide local and statewide races amid inescapable national undercurrents. With the exception of the governor's race, each incumbent is a Democrat known to voters, leaving the slate of Republican challengers with a choice between following the moderate message of Gov. Charlie Baker or embracing the populist style of President Donald Trump and the national GOP."
- "Candidates see turning point in 9th District race," by Geoff Spillane, Cape Cod Times: "U.S. Rep. William Keating, D-Mass., may be facing his toughest challenge in years in a bid for a fourth term representing the 9th Congressional District on Capitol Hill. Keating, of Bourne, is running against Republican Peter Tedeschi, a businessman from Marshfield with a highly recognizable name in the district as former CEO of Tedeschi Food Shops."
- "The Massachusetts Governor's Race In 5 Charts," by Lisa Williams, WGBH News: "As Nov. 6 approaches, we're here to take you on a dash through the math of this year's gubernatorial race between Gov. Charlie Baker and his Democratic challenger Jay Gonzalez."
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| WARREN REPORT |
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- "GOP expert: Big win's a must for Elizabeth Warren to challenge Donald Trump," by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: "U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is likely to win re-election today, but she needs to win big in order to be in a good place for 2020, political experts say. ... Warren, an incumbent Democrat with an eye on a 2020 White House run, is heavily favored to win the Bay State, and pollsters generally have her pulling about 60 percent of the vote, to about 25 percent for GOP challenger Geoff Diehl and a couple of points for independent candidate Shiva Ayyadurai. But she also needs to outperform popular Gov. Charlie Baker, who is also expected to win by a large margin."
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| TRUMPACHUSETTS |
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- "Has Trump gained ground in Massachusetts? We'll find out Tuesday," by Evan Horowitz, Boston Globe: "The wave of right-wing support that carried President Trump to power in 2016 also crashed into Massachusetts, reshaping the state's political map by exposing fresh sources of Republican support, especially in the western part of the state. Tuesday, we'll find out whether Trump's brand of politics has made further gains here."
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| AD WATCH |
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- "Baker-Polito Campaign Releases 90-Second Closing Argument Ad," from the Baker campagin: "Tonight, the Baker-Polito campaign's final, 90-second ad will air during the 6:00 PM news on television networks in Boston and Springfield. The ad, titled "Moving Massachusetts Forward," features Governor Charlie Baker and First Lady Lauren Baker recounting their journey on the campaign trail, connecting with voters across the Commonwealth."
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| MOULTON MATTERS |
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- "Service to country: In Kentucky, the fight to bring more veterans to Congress," by Christa Chase Bryant, Christian Science Monitor: "You wouldn't think that a Massachusetts Democrat would be of much help wooing voters deep in Trump Country. But that's who retired Marine Corps fighter pilot Amy McGrath enlisted in her bid to win Kentucky's 6th congressional district, one of the most closely watched races in the country."
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| THE CLARK CAUCUS |
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- "Baystate Business: Midterms, Apple, Wayfair," Bloomberg: "On the Thursday, November 1 edition of Bloomberg Baystate Business we talked with Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Seema Shah about Wayfair. Bruce Monrad of Northeast Investors talked about the markets. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jonathan Palmer talked about Thermo-Fisher and Perkin Elmer. Representative Katherine Clark talked about the midterms and her efforts to recruit Democratic candidates."
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| FROM THE HUB |
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- "Troubles amount to a 'cancer' at Boston Philharmonic," by Kay Lazar, Boston Globe: "The students said they could no longer keep quiet. Days after one of the Boston Philharmonic Orchestra's top artistic advisers was arrested on child pornography charges, a dozen young musicians filed into a conference room at the Philharmonic's headquarters and sought answers about the future of the organization. They were angry, and worried. The orchestra's leadership, the student players said, had seemed to brush aside the arrest, ignoring the tsunami of emotions triggered in the organization's youth orchestra."
- "Nearly 100 Papa Gino's and D'Angelo restaurants close; company files for bankruptcy protection," by Jon Chesto, Boston Globe: "There apparently weren't enough pieces of the market-share pie to go around for Papa Gino's. The chain's parent company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Delaware on Monday after abruptly closing 47 of its namesake pizzerias and 45 D'Angelo sandwich shops and laying off 1,100 people."
- "Woman, 71, punched in head on Red Line after asking for seat," by John R. Ellement, Boston Globe: "A 71-year-old woman looking to sit on a crowded Red Line train at Harvard Square during the evening commute was allegedly punched in the head by a younger woman who angrily refused to free up a seat by moving her pocketbook, according to Transit Police."
- "Bulger hoped to be buried next to longtime girlfriend," by Shelley Murphy and Kevin Cullen, Boston Globe: "After his capture in 2011, the South Boston gangster James "Whitey" Bulger apparently spent a significant amount of time thinking about his death, saying he wished to be buried next to the love of his life, Catherine Greig, the dental hygienist who spent 16 years on the lam with him. According to letters a former neighbor in California said Bulger sent to her, the mobster expected a more peaceful death than the brutal one he experienced last week at the hands of fellow inmates at a West Virginia prison."
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| THE LOWELL CONNECTOR |
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- "Justice Department to monitor elections in Malden, Lowell," by Aimee Ortiz, Boston Globe: "The US Department of Justice announced Monday that it will monitor Tuesday's election by deploying staff to 35 jurisdictions across the country, including Malden and Lowell. ... Malden and Lowell are among the state's most racially diverse cities, with non-Hispanic or Latino whites making up nearly half of the population. Under the Voting Rights Act, the two cities are required to provide election materials in other languages — Spanish and Cambodian in Lowell and Chinese, including Taiwanese, in Malden."
- "Where else would Baker-Polito be on election eve? The Owl Diner," by Kori Tuitt, The Lowell Sun: "A day before the midterm elections, Gov. Charlie Baker ended his campaign in Lowell where he began it four years ago at the Owl Diner. Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito chatted, shook hands and took selfies with Owl Diner customers Monday morning. As campaigning comes to an end, Polito said three things come to mind: people, places and partnerships."
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| BEHIND THE TOFU CURTAIN |
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- "Former Sen. Stan Rosenberg to host Amherst Media's election coverage," by Jim Russell, Springfield Republican: "Former state Senate President Stanley C. 'Stan' Rosenberg will host a live program covering election results Tuesday night on the town's public access TV station. The show is expected to feature commentary from him and four guests, with a focus on the Town Council race, as well as statewide and national races."
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| ABOVE THE FOLD |
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— Herald: "TRUMP'S TEST," — Globe: "O'Malley dispirited by bishops' neglect," "DONALD TRUMP IS RIGHT, THE VOTE IS ABOUT HIM." |
| THE LOCAL ANGLE |
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- "Police investigating anti-Semitic graffiti found in schools in Malden, Melrose," by Abigail Feldman and Jackson Cote, Boston Globe: "Police are investigating incidents of anti-Semitic graffiti found in public schools in Malden and Melrose, officials said Monday. At Malden High School, a swastika was found etched in an elevator Monday, Superintendent John Oteri wrote in a letter to the school community."
SPOTTED - At Boston Logan International airport ... former N.H. Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
TRANSITIONS - Alex Kingsbury, who was most recently deputy ideas editor at the Boston Globe, is joining the New York Times editorial board as a senior staff editor.
DID THE HOME TEAM WIN? Yes and no! The Bruins beat the Stars 2-1. The Nuggets beat the Celtics 115-107.
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