So ... we know that he's an illiterate, ignorant, incompetent, narcissist who doesn't admit failure — and yet he has declared bankruptcy more times than some people change their underwear. (I wish this particular comparison was only a joke. It isn't. )
We also know that he's a bully and a coward.
So while on the one hand, he has a track record of running from any possible admission of failure — he never acknowledges all those bankruptcies, except as wins (because it was the other guys who lost their shirts) — on the other hand, he's terrified of failure. It's not part of his identity.
He knows that his residency in our White House may very well be terminated soon. He doesn't want to be impeached, but he doesn't want to be arrested either. The bad news there is whether or not he is impeached, whether or not he is convicted, whether or not he is reelected, arrest is inevitable.
So really, the options aren't good.
1) Fight impeachment. That's not an option. He will be impeached in the house. That's inevitable. The Democrats now have enough votes to pass a bill of impeachment.
2) Try to keep the Senate from convicting him. He has two chances of that. Fat and slim. The Republican Senators are in the process of sending signals that they are more concerned with saving their own asses than his. At least 30 Republican Senators have indicated their willingness to convict if the vote is secret. That position will change as the rest of the evidence of criminal corruption is revealed. So he still ends up convicted and arrested.
3) Resign and avoid the public humiliation. And then be immediately charged, arrested, and held accountable. If he is charged under the RICO laws, he forfeits all property.
4) Run away. Be "president" in exile. I rather like this option. It would make for a great political thriller.
5) Become medically incapacitated, physically unfit for trial. This is his best option. It lets him get away with it. Although he still loses control of his "empire."
6) It is unlikely that he will escape conviction. But if he does, then he runs for reelection. It is unlikely that he will survive the growing tsunami of nationwide revulsion, but with enough electoral chicanery, he could hang onto the Blight House. In that case, all bets are off — because this nation will not survive four more years of this reign of error.
7) If he is convicted, he will not go down alone. Others will go down with him. That is likely to happen whether he is convicted or not. So the Republican party has a serious problem for the 2020 election. It would be a Goldwater scenario. In 1964, the Republican party knew they couldn't win the White House. The electorate was solidly Democratic, but more than that, there was a smoldering resentment of the right wing hate campaign that had been aimed at JFK and a vague suspicion that right wingers had set up the assassination. Even Goldwater knew he couldn't win — so the goal wasn't winning as much as it was establishing legitimacy of the right-wing ideology for the future. Whoever inherits the nomination, he will be a placeholder while the party tries to rebuild itself on the state levels.
Given that a Democratic president will likely serve two terms, all the way to Jan, 2029, then the Republicans will have most of a decade to rebuild themselves. Because they have had such success with a half century of lying, cheating, and stealing, ever since Nixon, do not expect the party to change. Based on the evidence of history, however, you can expect a massive rebranding while the same kochroaches continue to dictate robber-baron policies. Short of a massive internal collapse, I cannot imagine the Republican party coming back as a legitimate political party — they're owned by the religious fanatics, the racists, and the robber-barons in an unholy triumvirate of mutual advantage. The robber-barons loot the public treasury, the evangelicals get to control the religious conversation, and the racists get to pretend legitimacy. That kind of alliance will not die easily.
I could be wrong on any of these things — I was wrong when I said he would never get to the White House. I did not factor in the meddling of Russia and a multi-million dollar social media campaign by paid trolls and volunteer assholes, as well as the pretense to legitimacy of that bullshit that came from the Fox Noise pulpit.
The one thing that is true is that we are in a chaotic situation. We have been in a long-running Constitutional crisis and we do not yet know how it will resolve itself.
But it will resolve, one way or another. Tyrannies do not last. They crumble from within. They collapse. They get overthrown. Tyrants die. And sometimes there are revolutions. Sometimes peaceful. Sometimes not.
But tyrannies do end.
Myself, I believe the best option is 100 million voters go to the polls and vote blue.
