20 January 20
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 19 January 20 It's Live on the HomePage Now: Reader Supported News Sure, I'll make a donation!
"Electability" Is a Poisonous Political Shibboleth
 Osita Nwanevu, The New Republic Nwanevu writes: "Like many of the other concepts that shape electoral punditry and political discourse - charisma, qualification, momentum, authenticity - electability is a shibboleth of a political mysticism that 'tickles the brain' only because it cannot fully engage it - a drab, gray astrology, maintained by over-caffeinated men." READ MORE  Quisha Jefferson manages a 7-Eleven convenience store that's usually open round-the-clock, but she plans to shut it down Sunday night and reopen Monday when calm returns. (photo: Carlos Bernate/NBC News)
As Gun Rights Rally Looms in Virginia, Richmond Residents Fear Another Charlottesville
Ben Kesslen, NBC News Kesslen writes: "As gun rights activists, white nationalists and militia groups prepare to rally at the state Capitol on Monday to protest proposed gun control laws, residents are praying it won't be a repeat of the violent 2017 rally in Charlottesville that ended in a woman's death."
The Virginia Citizens Defense League, which organizes the annual gun rights rally, said it wants a "peaceful event," but the crowd is expected to be larger than usual because Democrats took control of the Legislature last year and are proposing several gun control bills that would limit handgun purchases and require background checks, among other regulations.
The proposals come after a mass shooting in May in Virginia Beach, in which a disgruntled city employee killed 12 people in a municipal building.
“I’m very worried,” Francisca Benavides, a student at Virginia Commonwealth University, said.
Benavides, who's studying photography at the 31,000-student public research university, wanted to attend the rally to document it but is having second thoughts after Gov. Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency last week in anticipation of the event. He said "credible intelligence" indicated the rally would draw armed militias and hate groups.
“All my friends are trying to convince me not to attend,” Benavides said, adding she was reassured when Northam temporarily banned guns and other weapons from the grounds of the Capitol, and the state Supreme Court struck down the rally organizers' challenge to the order.
But on Thursday, three members of a neo-Nazi group called The Base, which advocates for a white ethno-state, were arrested on the East Coast, and law enforcement officials said they had been planning to attend the rally. The next day, officials announced the arrests of three men from Georgia and one from Wisconsin, all allegedly members of The Base.
Richmond residents said they were glad to see the men apprehended, but it doesn’t do much to calm their nerves. President Donald Trump’s tweet Friday, saying “Your 2nd Amendment is under very serious attack in the Great Commonwealth of Virginia,” was seen by some as a call to join Monday’s rally, further stoking anxieties.
Gabby Safley, a VCU student from Charlottesville who studies history, saw what happened to her city when neo-Nazis marched through the streets and white supremacist James Alex Fields ran over and killed counterprotester Heather Heyer. She had friends near Fields’ car when he sped into the crowd, students she mentored who were traumatized by the day's events, and her aunt served on the jury for Field's trial, she said.
Safley fears Monday’s rally will be Charlottesville all over again.
“I’m not surprised it’s happening,” she said, “and it wouldn’t be surprising if it turns into something like Charlottesville.”
She said she will stay away from the Capitol on Monday but is upset by the strong response to what she views as practical gun control measures.
“My family hunts, but I think gun control is necessary,” she said. “You shouldn’t be worried if you’re not doing anything illegal.”
Anthony Berrios, who lives near the Capitol, said he will stay with his girlfriend, who lives in a different part of the city, on Monday. He said the premise behind the rally is misguided.
“It’s a myth that the government is trying to take their guns away,” he said. “I just wish people would really take an objective look at what’s best for society versus what’s good for themselves.”
Just a block from the Capitol, Quisha Jefferson manages a 7-Eleven convenience store that's usually open round-the-clock, but she plans to shut it down Sunday night and reopen Monday when calm returns.
“I’m not gonna do it,” she said. “We’re gonna close. We don’t want to be a part of what’s going on.”
Even if she wanted to stay open, it would be difficult for her employees to get to work because road closures forced by the rally will impede bus routes, and they are nervous about showing up for their regular Monday shifts anyway.
“I don’t want to put them in danger, and I don’t want to put myself in danger,” Jefferson said, pointing to the store’s large glass windows that she thinks would make them vulnerable to an attack. “I’m gonna lose a lot of business, but I’d rather my workers be at home, be safe.”
Some Richmond residents, whose jobs are near Capitol Square, said they don’t want to go to work Monday either, but they have no choice. Many area businesses will be closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but a few retail and service employees whose workplaces will remain open still have to show up.
“We’re terrified,” said one woman, who can see the Capitol from her place of work and asked not to be named because she feared retribution from her employer.
“I hope it’s worth it,” she said of her employer’s decision to stay open to avoid losing a day of business.
In Jackson Ward, the city’s historically black neighborhood, Marvin Smith is taking a different approach from that of his neighbors, who are leaving town. The barbershop he owns about a mile north of Capitol Square won't be open, but he will be in his store.
“I’m gonna be here for the community,” Smith said. “I want to know what’s going on and be on call.”
Organizers say thousands of people will be at the Capitol on Monday as the Virginia Citizens Defense League buses people in from across the state, while other rallygoers are expected to travel from out of state.
At her two-week-old clothing store, Serendipity, Kim Williams said her customers were talking about the rally all day Saturday. Tourists from Boston told her they had chosen the wrong weekend to visit Richmond, and a college student said her father planned a last-minute visit but couldn’t get a hotel room because they were all booked up.
“I don’t want anything to happen that will make Richmond look bad,” Williams, who has lived in the area all her life, said. Her store isn’t open Mondays, and she won’t be going near the Capitol. “I’ll be home, probably watching the news.”
Not everyone in the city feels on edge.
“A lot of it is just talk,” Sean Taplett, who works and studies in Richmond, said.
He used to live in Portland, Oregon, where anti-fascist and far-right groups often clash.
“I’m familiar with the hysteria around these events," he said. "The violence is usually self-contained.”
Taplett wants to check out the rally and see for himself what transpires.
As of Sunday, no major counterprotest had been planned, and many anti-fascist groups encouraged their members to stay away from the rally.
Gun safety groups also canceled their annual MLK Day vigil at the Capitol, citing “ongoing, credible threats to public safety that have been promoted and encouraged by gun extremists.” The vigil, which has been hosted for the last 28 years, was supposed to begin after the gun rights rally.
While Richmond residents wait to see what happens Monday, Safley, the VCU student from Charlottesville, is stuck on the fact all this is happening on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
“They really hit all the stops with this one,” she said, before referring to a phrase from the Second Amendment right to bear arms. "A ‘well-regulated militia' doesn’t mean you get to go buck-wild.”
READ MORE Donald Trump Jr. (photo: FoxNews)
Don Jr. Admits Meeting Lev Parnas: 'I Thought He Was Israeli'
Justin Baragona, The Daily Beast Baragona writes: "Presidential son Donald Trump Jr. admitted on Sunday to meeting indicted Giuliani associate Lev Parnas." READ MORE  The actor Danny Glover, right, testifies before Congress about reparations alongside the author Ta-Nehisi Coates. Glover appeared at a town hall in Evanston to discuss the same issue. (photo: Pablo Martínez Monsiváis/AP)
One City's Reparations Program That Could Offer a Blueprint for the Nation
Eric Lutz, Guardian UK Lutz writes: "For years, Robin Rue Simmons watched Evanston, Illinois, 'working hard' to resolve its racial disparities - but with little to show for its efforts." READ MORE  Nazanin Asadi, who grew up in Iran, struggled to pay for her education in the US with her parents barred from offering support. (photo: Dan Tuffs/Guardian UK)
Cut Off From Family, Unable to Travel: How US Sanctions Punish Iranian Americans
Sam Levin, Guardian UK Levin writes: "Following the US assassination of a top Iranian general earlier this month and Iranian airstrikes against US military bases in Iraq, Donald Trump once again imposed biting sanctions against the regime in Tehran." READ MORE  An entranceway to President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort is seen on April 03, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (photo: Getty Images)
Trump Tells Donors Soleimani Was Killed After "Saying Bad Things About Our Country"
Daniel Politi, Slate Politi writes: "President Donald Trump gave new details about the airstrike that killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani at a private dinner with donors Friday night at his Mar-a-Lago resort." READ MORE  Carbon emissions. (photo: Getty Images)
The Tricky Task of Tallying Carbon
Adam Levy, The Week Levy writes: "More than 60 years ago, atmospheric scientist Charles David Keeling began regular measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere."  ore than 60 years ago, atmospheric scientist Charles David Keeling began regular measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. In the heart of the Pacific and far from the largest human sources of the gas, Hawaii's Mauna Loa Observatory was an ideal location for these measurements. Within just two years, Keeling had detected two patterns in the data. The first was an annual rise and fall as the seasons came and went. But the second — a year-by-year increase — suggested something alarming: a rise in carbon dioxide produced by the widespread burning of fossil fuels. In 1965, Keeling's measurements were incorporated into a report for U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson that described carbon dioxide from fossil fuels as "the invisible pollutant" and warned of its dangers.
Since then, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have continued to rise, as have the concerns over the changes that such an atmospheric shift brings.
Observations are still taken at Mauna Loa today, and the resulting "Keeling Curve" reveals that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have increased by almost a third since the first measurements were taken. The world's average temperature has already warmed by around 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since preindustrial times, driving increases in everything from sea levels to the frequency of extreme weather events.
For those groups and nations striving to limit global warming, accurately tracking carbon emissions will be key to assessing progress and validating international agreements. But how do scientists do that? And how does the amount released into the air relate to what scientists end up measuring at outposts such as Mauna Loa?
Here's the current state of counting carbon, explained.
Why is monitoring global carbon emissions important?
A comprehensive tally of carbon released is essential not just for assessing which countries are pulling their weight and meeting agreed targets. It's also key to improving understanding of carbon's natural cycle and to more precisely quantifying the link between humankind's emissions and the planet's temperature. But calculating, much less measuring, global carbon dioxide emissions remains an immense technical challenge, since almost every human activity is implicated in the molecule's release.
In Paris in 2015, most of the world reached an agreement on climate change. The deal was to limit the world's warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), with a target of just 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. Nations pledged to cut their emissions, and the Paris Agreement aims to periodically review progress. While these pledges are insufficient to achieve the deal's targets, the hope is that countries will gradually ramp up their ambitions, and further ramp down emissions.
The emissions pledges are exactly that — pledges. They are not legally binding, and if a country misses its intended targets, the only diplomatic consequence would be the judgment of the international community.
But all of this relies on a clear picture of the country's emissions in the first place. It's a crucial undertaking, because "monitoring emissions is directly at the heart of the pledge-and-review concept," says Gabriel Chan of the Humphrey School of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota, who reviewed the state of international climate policy in the Annual Review of Resource Economics.
Atmospheric observations — like those carried out at Mauna Loa — provide a global, cumulative picture, but cannot be decomposed into year-by-year national contributions. Global measures also fail to account for the natural carbon "sinks" — the portion of carbon dioxide emissions that are taken up by the oceans and land. For a clear picture of national emissions, researchers have to start from the bottom up.
How do you calculate a country's carbon emissions?
In theory this is just a matter of math, but in practice it's a question of huge-scale accounting. To get a picture of the carbon dioxide a country emits by burning fossil fuels, all energy use must first be counted. These assessments are already carried out for economic reasons and include tabulating the quantities of different fuels — such as coal, gas, or kerosene — that are produced, traded, converted, or used by a country across all sectors. While the contribution of large sources such as power plants can be relatively straightforward to assess, other ledger entries — such as household activities — "are very hard to account for," says Chan. Accurately estimating these sources requires surveys to assess what goes on within a typical home and extrapolating from those.
Figures from these energy assessments can be used to estimate national carbon dioxide emissions. Inventories provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change list the amount of carbon dioxide released when an amount of a particular fuel is burned. These "emissions factors" can be combined with energy data to calculate the amount of carbon dioxide that will be released from all of a nation's fossil fuel combustion.
The International Energy Agency, which has been collecting energy data for over 40 years and calculates its own statistics on emissions, recognizes the difficulty in getting it right. "We do really spend a substantial part of our time validating the data," says Roberta Quadrelli of the IEA's Energy Data Centre. For example, if a refinery disappears from the data, it's essential to find out whether its absence was caused by the refinery closing or by being missed in the reporting.
Issues can also crop up when converting energy use to emissions. A 2015 study found that in one year China's emissions had been overestimated by some 14 percent. "The error bar was like an entire Germany," says Chan. This huge miscalculation was primarily caused by a misassessment of the quality of the coal burned in Chinese power plants. Given the scale of China's emissions (currently higher than those of any other nation, although not on a per person basis), some errors are not a surprise, says climate scientist Corinne Le Quéré, who leads the annual Global Carbon Budget report. "I don't want to give them excuses, but it's a big challenge."
What about tracking smaller, less obvious sources of carbon?
In fact, one of the biggest challenges in tracking carbon dioxide emissions isn't related to burning fossil fuels at all. Certain changes in land use — such as deforestation or urbanization — can lead to an uptick in carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere through a number of complex processes. An area of much current research, these factors are far harder to assess than emissions from transportation or power plants. And while land use changes were estimated to be responsible for only around 12 percent of global emissions in 2016, they remain a major source of uncertainty about how much carbon is entering the atmosphere.
For all these reasons and more, overall uncertainty in total carbon emissions remains high, equivalent to nearly 10 percent of the calculated annual emissions and more than the European Union's entire fossil fuel emission tally for 2017.
How current are carbon emissions numbers?
Timing poses another challenge. The complexity of tabulating national emission totals also causes delays in reporting. These delays can make a big difference for policy. Official statistics may take many months to appear, meaning negotiators are often working with outdated information, says Niklas Höhne, who founded Climate Action Tracker, which monitors nations' climate commitments and actions.
At the extreme end, during the Copenhagen climate negotiations in 2009, negotiators were working with an IPCC report published in 2007. The report included emissions only up to 2004, and this chain of delays meant that there was a half-decade gap between policy and reality. These five years — it was later shown — had seen a significant increase in emissions, and the scenarios in terms of emissions and temperature targets sketched out in the negotiations were misaligned with the real world. Even as they were unveiled, they were out of date.
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