Democratic Florida Senator Bill Nelson offered the article below that refutes the UNTRUE predictions about the Affordable Care Act -- Obamacare.
Experience elsewhere has proven that RATES DECREASE.
No Rate Increase, Rand Predictsby Carol Gentry
11:06 am on Fri August 30,
2013
Contradicting Florida's Office of Insurance Regulation,
a study from the RAND Corporation reports that the Affordable Care Act is
unlikely to cause a hike in premiums for the individual market in this state or
nationally.
The RAND study findings stand in stark contrast to the widely
publicized predictions of Florida Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty. On July
30, the Palm Beach Post published a prediction from McCarty that customers in
the individual market would see rate increases of 30 to 40 percent for next
year. Newspapers across the state picked up the refrain.
McCarty at the
time said the premiums would shoot up because insurance carriers will no longer
be able to screen out customers who have health risks. The forecast applied only
to 5 percent or so of Floridians who bought their own policies, rather than
getting them through their workplace or some other source.
But
researchers from the well-known, non-partisan Rand Corp. found something quite
different when they modeled what will likely happen in Florida, one of 10 states
they focused on.
In Florida and four other states, in an
apples-to-apples comparison, "the law causes no change in premiums," the study
summary concludes. Among the other states, premiums for the individual or
"nongroup" market were forecast to rise in three and go down in two.
RAND forecast that there would be little or no rise in premiums in the
small group market in nine of the 10 states, including Florida. McCarty's staff
predicted a hike of 5 to 20 percent in small-group premiums.
"We
conclude that the Affordable Care Act will lead to an increase in insurance
coverage and higher enrollment in the nongroup market," the authors wrote. "Our
analysis suggests that comparisons of average premiums with and without the
Affordable Care Act may overstate the potential for premium
increases."
McCarty's analysis, led by Deputy Commissioner Wences
Troncoso, forecast an influx of sick people into the nongroup market that would
force up costs and premiums. The Rand team predicts that will be offset by an
influx of healthy young people, motivated by the law's requirement to get
coverage and the subsidies available to those with modest incomes.
In
Florida, the federal online Marketplace will make tax credits available on a
sliding scale to individuals and families with incomes between 100 and 400
percent of the federal poverty level. (Families USA has posted an income
reference chart, and Kaiser Family Foundation provides a subsidy calculator.)
The Marketplace is scheduled to be open Oct. 1 through March 31 for 2014
coverage.
The six researchers who performed the RAND analysis say they
think the nongroup market in all 10 states will expand, growing from around 4.3
percent to about 9.5 percent. The small-group market, used mainly by businesses
with fewer than 50 workers, will remain stable, they predicted.
They
think that while some employers may drop coverage for workers, that will be
offset by employers taking advantage of new "SHOP" exchanges. In the 33 states
that are letting the federal government create and manage the exchanges,
including Florida, the one for small businesses will be delayed for a
year.
The study was commissioned by the U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services. It was peer-reviewed.
http://email.capitolenews.com/q/WZGNrW0Eba_-MBvicEvhI5ZUDRgbXgY6-us-oCDPAB6LkcIQ1K9i4NFYO
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