"Military Intervention In
Syria"
US Training "Rebels" Since
2011 And The Complete Grand Plan - The March 2012 Leak
By Tyler DurdenAugust 25, 2013 "Information Clearing House - For all those still shocked by the "developing events" in Syria, here is the full rundown as it was orchestrated back in 2011, and as it was released in March 2012 by Wikileaks.
By Tyler DurdenAugust 25, 2013 "Information Clearing House - For all those still shocked by the "developing events" in Syria, here is the full rundown as it was orchestrated back in 2011, and as it was released in March 2012 by Wikileaks.
From Wikileaks, released
3/6/2012, typos and grammar errors as in original.
INSIGHT - military
intervention in Syria, post withdrawal status of forces
Released on 2012-03-06
07:00 GMT
A few points I wanted to
highlight from meetings today --
I spent most of the afternoon
at the Pentagon with the USAF strategic studies group - guys who spend their
time trying to understand and explain to the USAF chief the big picture in areas
where they're operating in. It was just myself and four other guys at the
Lieutenant Colonel level, including one French and one British representative
who are liaising with the US currently out of DC.
They wanted to grill me on the
strategic picture on Syria, so after that I got to grill them on the military
picture. There is still a very low level of understanding of what is
actually at stake in Syria, what's the strategic interest there, the Turkish
role, the Iranian role, etc. After a couple hours of talking, they said without saying that SOF
teams (presumably from US, UK, France, Jordan, Turkey) are already on the ground
focused on recce [ZH: "recce" means
reconnaissance] missions and training opposition forces.
One Air Force intel guy (US) said very carefully that there isn't much
of a Free Syrian Army to train right now anyway, but all the operations being
done now are being done out of 'prudence.' The way it was put to me was, 'look
at this way - the level of information known on Syrian OrBat this month is the
best it's been since 2001.' They have been told to prepare contingencies and be
ready to act within 2-3 months, but they still stress that this is all being
done as contingency planning, not as a move toward
escalation.
I kept pressing
on the question of what these SOF teams would be working toward, and whether
this would lead to an eventual air camapign to give a Syrian rebel group cover.
They pretty quickly distanced themselves from that
idea, saying that the idea 'hypothetically' is to commit guerrilla
attacks, assassination campaigns, try to break the back of the Alawite forces,
elicit collapse from within. There wouldn't be a need for air
cover, and they wouldn't expect these Syrian rebels to be marching in columns
anyway.
They emphasized how the air
campaign in Syria makes Libya look like a piece of cake. Syrian air
defenses are a lot more robust and are much denser, esp around Damascus and on
the borders with Israel, Turkey. THey are most worried about mobile air
defenses, particularly the SA-17s that they've been getting recently. It's still
a doable mission, it's just not an easy one.
The main base
they would use is Cyprus, hands down. Brits and FRench would fly out of there.
They kept stressing how much is stored at Cyprus
and how much recce comes out of there. The group was split on whether Turkey
would be involved, but said Turkey would be pretty critical to the mission to
base stuff out of there. EVen if Turkey had a poltiical problem with
Cyprus, they said there is no way the Brits and the FRench wouldn't use Cyprus
as their main air force base. Air Force Intel guy seems pretty
convinced that the Turks won't participate (he seemed pretty
pissed at them.)
There still seems to be a lot
of confusion over what a military intervention involving an air campaign would
be designed to achieve. It isn't clear cut for them geographically like
in Libya, and you can't just create an NFZ over Homs, Hama region. This
would entail a countrywide SEAD campaign lasting the duration of the war. They dont believe air intervention
would happen unless there was enough media attention on a massacre, like the
Ghadafi move against Benghazi. They think the US would
have a high tolerance for killings as long as it doesn't reach that very public
stage. Theyre also questiioning the skills of the Syrian forces that
are operating the country's air defenses currently and how signfiicant the
Iranian presence is there. Air Force Intel guy is most obsessed with the
challenge of taking out Syria's ballistic missile capabilities and chem weapons.
With Israel rgiht there and the regime facing an existential crisis, he sees
that as a major complication to any military intervention.
The post 2011 SOFA with Iraq
is still being negotiated. These guys were hoping that during Biden's visit that
he would announce a deal with Maliki, but no such luck. They are gambling ont he
idea that the Iraqis remember the iran-iraq war and that maliki is not going to
want to face the threat of Iranian jets entering Iraqi air space. THey say that
most US fighter jets are already out of Iraq and transferred to Kuwait.
They explained that's the beauty of the air force, the base in Kuwait is
just a hop, skip and jump away from their bases in Europe, ie. very easy to
rapidly build up when they need to. They don't seem concerned about the
US ability to restructure its forces to send a message to Iran. They gave the
example of the USS Enterprise that was supposed to be out of commission already
and got extended another couple years to send to the gulf. WHen the US
withdraws, we'll have at least 2 carriers in the gulf out of centcom and one
carrier in the Med out of EuCom. I asked if the build-up in Kuwait and
the carrier deployments are going to be enough to send a message to Iran that
the US isn't going anywhere. They responded that Iran will get the message if
they read the Centcom Web Site. STarting Jan. 1 expect them to be publishing all
over the place where the US is
building up.
building up.
Another concern they
have about an operation in Syria is whether Iran could impede operations out of
Balad air force base in Iraq.
The French representative was
of hte opinion that Syria won't be a libya-type situation in that France would
be gung-ho about going in. Not in an election year. The UK rep also emphasized
UK reluctance but said that the renegotiation of the EU treaty undermines the UK
role and that UK would be looking for ways to reassert itself on the continent (
i dont really think a syria campaign is the way to do that.) UK guy
mentioned as an aside that the air force base commander at Cyprus got switched
out from a maintenance guy to a guy that flew Raptors, ie someone that
understands what it means to start dropping bombs. He joked that it was
probably a coincidence.
Prior to that, I had a meeting
with an incoming Kuwaiti diplomat (will be coded as KU301.) His father was high
up in the regime, always by the CP's/PM's side. The diplo himself still seems to
be getting his feet wet in DC (the new team just arrived less than 2 weeks ago,)
but he made pretty clear that Kuwait was opening the door to allowing US
to build up forces as needed. THey already have a significant presence
there, and a lot of them will be on 90-day rotations. He also said that the SOFA
that the US signs with Baghdad at the last minute will be worded in such a way
that even allowing one trainer in the country can be construed to mean what the
US wants in terms of keeping forces in Iraq. Overall, I didnt get the impression
from him that Kuwait is freaked out about the US leaving.
Everyhting is just getting
rearranged. The Kuwaitis used to be much better at managing their relations with
Iran, but ever since that spy ring story came out a year ago, it's been bad. He
doesn't think Iran has significant covert capabililiteis in the GCC states,
though they are trying. Iranian activity is mostly propaganda focused.
He said that while KSA and Bahrain they can deal with it as needed and
black out the media, Kuwait is a lot more open and thus provides Iran with more
oppotunity to shape perceptions (he used to work in inforamtion
unit in Kuwait.) He says there is a sig number of kuwaitis that listen
to Iranian media like Al Alam especially.
On the Kuwaiti political scene
- the government is having a harder time dealing with a more emboldened
opposition, but the opposition is still extremely divided, esp among the
Islamists. The MPs now all have to go back to their tribes to rally support for
the elections to take place in Feb. Oftentimes an MP in Kuwait city will find
out that he has lost support back home with the tribe, and so a lot of moeny is
handed out.The govt is hoping
that witha clean slate they can quiet the opposition down. A
good way of managing the opposition he said is to refer cases to the courts,
where they can linger forever. good way for the govt to buy
time. He doesnt believe the Arab League will take significant action
against Syria - no one is interested in military intervention. they just say it
to threaten it.
This article was
originally published at Zero Hedge
Syria agrees to let UN inspect site of alleged
chemical weapons attack:
Government will allow United Nations experts
to visit site of alleged gas attack outside Damascus, according to state
media
Britain says Syria chemical attack evidence
may already be destroyed:
Britain said on Sunday that evidence of a
chemical weapons attack in the suburbs of Damascus could have already been
destroyed ahead of U.N. inspectors visiting the site.
UN
experts will not go to Aleppo for security reasons - source:
UN inspectors will not go to Aleppo near
Damascus, where the first chemical attack allegedly took place, because none of
the uncoordinated Islamist groups operating there will be able to ensure their
safety, a high-ranking source said Sunday.
Russia says 'tragic mistake' to assign blame
too soon for Syrian gas attack:
Without directly naming the United States but
in comments that warned against any military action against Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad's government, Moscow urged against "hurried conclusions" over
the reports of a poison gas attack.
Tensions Rise as U.S. Nears Determination on
Syria Attack:
The U.S. government is weighing the risks of
taking action and the costs of not, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, traveling in
Malaysia, said Sunday.
Mideast defense chiefs to meet in Jordan
:
The Pentagon says U.S. Central Command and the
Jordanian Armed Forces are co-hosting Mideast defense chiefs in Jordan over the
next few days to discuss the region's security environment.
US,
UK and French forces near Syria:
Details of U.S., French and British forces in
the region that could be involved in any attack.
Putin Responds To Syria Escalation:
May "Reinforce Naval Grouping In
Mediterranean" Following US Buildup: Interfax reported that Russia is starting
to pre-emptively, for now, retaliate.
Syria: Cameron and Obama move west closer to
intervention:
British prime minister and US president agree
that alleged chemical attack 'requires a response'
Major arms shipment reaches Syrian rebels,
opposition says:
Gulf-financed weapons shipment, which crossed
into Syria from Turkey, is one of biggest ever to reach rebels.
Syria warns U.S. not to intervene militarily:
Syria's Information Minister dismissed the
possibility of an American attack, warning that such a move would risk
triggering more violence in the region. "The basic repercussion would be a ball
of fire that would burn not only Syria but the whole Middle East," al-Zoubi
said
Russia warns against military intervention in
Syria:
"All sponsors of the opposition who have any
influence on it should press all opponents of Bashar Assad to agree to
negotiations, whereas statements with threats of force against the Syrian regime
are sending a directly opposite signal to the opposition, and our American and
European partners should realize what catastrophic consequences such a policy
would have for the region
US
will face 'harsh consequences' if intervenes in Syria over chemical weapons use:
Iran:
A top Iranian military chief today warned that
the US will face "harsh consequences" if it intervenes in ally Syria over claims
of chemical attacks, Fars news agency reported. "If the United States crosses
this red line, there will be harsh consequences for the White House," armed
forces deputy chief of staff
Even
war criminal : Colin Powell urges U.S. to back away from Syria
conflict:
The choice between President Bashar Assad and
the Islamist-influenced rebels did not appear to be much of a choice, he
said.
Americans strongly oppose US intervention in
Syria - even if chemical weapons are confirmed:
About 60 per cent of Americans surveyed said
the US should not intervene in Syria's civil war, while just 9 per cent thought
the US president, Barack Obama, should act.
Syria's opposition considers national rebel
army, Islamists angered:
Momentum behind the new force comes from Saudi
Arabia and Western nations who, alarmed by the growth of radical Islamists in
rebel-held areas, have thrown their weight behind the Syrian Coalition, hoping
it could help stem their power.
Governor of Syrian
province killed in car bombing:
The governor of the central Syrian province of
Hama, Anas Abdel-Razaq, was killed in a car bombing, reports state news agency
SANA, dpa reported.
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