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GOOD MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: MOULTON'S CASH FLOW — Rep. Seth Moulton has raised so much cash with his Serve America PAC this cycle that, among Democrats, he's ranks as the third-highest leadership PAC fundraiser in the country. Moulton raised $2 million from Jan. 2017 to Sept. 2018.
Ahead of Moulton are Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, who raised $4.4 million and Sen. Kamala Harris, who has $2.3 million in her leadership PAC, according to nonpartisan advocacy group Issue One, which did a recent report on leadership PACs. According to Issue One, 90 percent of House members have a leadership PAC, and only three sitting senators do not have one.
"Serve America PAC is about more than just cutting checks. Seth has aimed to recruit and inspire a new generation of leadership that will remain actively engaged in the Democratic Party," spokesman Matt Corridoni said in a statement to POLITICO.
On the giving side, Massachusetts-based defense contractor Raytheon ranked 12th among top donors to leadership PACs. The company has given close to $780,000 to 125 leadership PACs since last January. Broken down by party, 30 percent of that giving has been to Democratic PACs, and 70 percent was to Republican PACs, according to the report.
TV AD BUYS SHOW LACK OF ACTION — If you've felt inundated by political ads on TV this month, it could be a lot worse. Boston only ranked 25th for political ad spending over the last 30 days, according to data compiled Tuesday by Advertising Analytics. It's a sign there's a lack of action on the ballot in Massachusetts, at least compared to other political hot spots. Las Vegas ranks number one, with more than $63 million in ad spending over the last 30 days — that's four times the spending in Boston. Nevada has competitive races for governor, the Senate and the House this cycle.
In Massachusetts, statewide challengers like gubernatorial hopeful Jay Gonzalez and GOP Senate candidate Geoff Diehl haven't exactly made huge TV ad buys. Gonzalez started advertising on television in the last couple of weeks, and Diehl opted to take out print ads in newspapers.
The Providence-New Bedford market was ranked 53rd over the last 30 days, with around $5.5 million in political ad spending. The Springfield-Holyoke market took in $1.3 million, ranking 124th on the list.
BEACON HILL FORECAST — Things are heating up in races for the Legislature, but it looks like incumbents still hold the cards, according to elections data shared with POLITICO.
The race between GOP state Sen. Patrick O'Connor and Democrat Katie McBrine saw some movement yesterday when the new Priorities for Progress PAC announced it's spending $5,000 in digital ads against O'Connor, who is leading by 4 points according to a recent poll.
And now the conservative Jobs First PAC is teeing up some digital ads critical of McBrine's support for safe injection sites leading up to election day. Jobs First Massachusetts Executive Director Andrew Goodrich told me the first ad buy will be $1,500, but the PAC is aiming to match Priorities for Progress' spending. McBrine's campaign manager Melissa Smith said it seems both PACs have decided to "make some hay," though the campaigns have agreed to keep it positive.
So how will it all shake out? Carl Klarner, an academic and political consultant, forecasts McBrine, endorsed by President Barack Obama, will get 42.2 percent of the vote next week, and he says there is an 89.5 percent probability that O'Connor will win. Klarner modeled state-level races across the country using conditions measured Oct. 27 to Oct. 29. He used Bureau of Economic Analysis income data and presidential approval data, among other factors.
In Andover, Democrat Tram Nguyen has picked up endorsements from big names like Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Klarner forecasts Nguyen will get 42.4 percent of the vote, and that incumbent state Rep. Jim Lyons has an 88.7 percent chance of winning.
Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: smurray@politico.com.
TODAY - Gov. Charlie Baker and Democratic challenger Jay Gonzalez debate for the last time. Boston Mayor Marty Walshattends a Yes on 1 rally with Massachusetts Nurses Association President Donna Kelly-Williams, Massachusetts AFL-CIO PresidentSteve Tolman and American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten.
Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito, state Senate President Karen Spilka and state Rep. Jack Lewis make a MassWorks grant announcement in Ashland. Polito and Sen. Richard Ross make a grant announcement in Natick. Auditor Suzanne Bump and Treasurer Deborah Goldberg attend Women Veterans' Appreciation Day at the State House. Rep. Niki Tsongas attends a "Women for Deb" event for Goldberg, hosted by Vicki Kennedy.
Democrat for Congress Ayanna Pressley holds an early agenda forum on criminal justice reform in Roxbury. Senate GOP hopeful Geoff Diehl holds pressers in Gloucester and Lowell. The Cannabis Control Commission meets. Rep. Seth Moulton is on WBUR's "Radio Boston." Economic Mobility Pathways holds its Disrupting the Poverty Cycle Conference.
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 | DATELINE BEACON HILL |
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- "Dark days for public discourse," by Gov. Charlie Baker, Boston Globe: "When my brothers and I were young, my mom, a Democrat, and my dad, a Republican, used to lead freewheeling discussions at our dinner table. The only rule was paying attention when others were talking, and no interrupting. My parents cancelled each other out in most elections, but the back and forth around our table was a conversation, not a contest. They were both good listeners, and they expected the rest of us to be good listeners too. Their message was simple and clear — tough on the issues, and soft on the people."
- "Bump falls short of state's audit deadlines," by Colman M. Herman, CommonWealth Magazine: "STATE AUDITOR SUZANNE BUMP'S office is legally required to audit 210 agencies every three years, but she has fallen short of that mark 29 times recently. Three cabinet-level agencies — energy and environmental affairs, housing and economic development, and labor and workforce development — were all supposed to be audited two-and-a-half years ago, but they haven't been done yet."
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| ON THE STUMP |
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- "One race for governor — and two very different days in the campaign" by Matt Stout, Boston Globe: Wrapped in a Red Sox sweatshirt, Governor Charlie Baker bounded up the Fenway Park riser Wednesday to gleefully recount the last out of the World Series. He mimicked Manny Machado's flailing, down-on-one-knee swing to a cheering crowd. 'It was awesome!' Baker exclaimed. Local TV stations carried the moment live. A few miles away at South Station, Jay Gonzalez stood outside. One hand stuffed inside a dark grey peacoat, the other extended outward, he greeted commuters trying to beat the dwindling walk signal. 'Hello, Jay Gonzalez,' he said introducing himself, a Republican party tracker training a lone handheld video camera at his back."
- "Gonzalez gets praise, flak for time as budget chief," by Joshua Miller, Boston Globe: " It was the summer of 2011. The state was still reeling from the Great Recession. Lawmakers had sent the governor legislation that would allow cities and towns, without drawn-out negotiations, to shift health care costs to employees and retirees. Unions were apoplectic. Cities and towns were dug in about the need for savings to avoid laying off workers. And Deval Patrick's budget chief, Jay Gonzalez, was assigned an unenviable task: Somehow, some way, get everyone on board."
- "Geoff Diehl Says He Was Co-Chair Of Trump's Bay State Campaign. Was He?" by Antonio Caban, WGBH News: "Geoff Diehl, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, has long touted himself as the Massachusetts co-chairman of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. He served as a convention delegate, volunteer and was an avid supporter of Trump. But Diehl's co-chair position with the campaign was honorary, with no independent management authority, and he didn't have any officially sanctioned role after the March 2016 primary was over, according to people who worked with the Trump campaign in New York."
- "Charlie Baker says he's been tough on Trump when it matters. Is that enough for Mass. voters?" by Matt Stout, Boston Globe: "As Baker seeks reelection to a second term, still hovering at the periphery of his political profile are questions about how he has responded to, navigated around, and truly feels about Donald Trump. Baker didn't vote for Trump in 2016, and said he doesn't intend to in 2020, either. He has criticized Trump's actions in sharp tones ("disgraceful") and mild ones ("disappointing"). But in a state where many voters generally loathe Trump, is it enough? His challenger, Democrat Jay Gonzalez, says absolutely not; The state needs a fiercer fighter."
- "WBUR Poll: Just Days Before Election, Baker Keeps Big Lead Over Gonzalez," by Steve Brown, WBUR: "As they prepare for their final gubernatorial debate Thursday night, incumbent Republican Gov. Charlie Baker continues to hold a sizable lead over Democratic challenger Jay Gonzalez. A new WBUR poll looking at the race finds Baker remains popular among Republicans and Democrats. When we asked 502 likely voters this past weekend who they intend to vote for, 68 percent said they're going with Baker, and that includes many Democrats."
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| WARREN REPORT |
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- "Here's the deal with the ethics complaint filed against Warren that she calls 'frivolous,'" by Victoria McGrane, Boston Globe:"During the race's final debate Tuesday, GOP Senate hopeful Geoff Diehl accused Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Warren of "illegally" fund-raising off the controversial confirmation vote for then-Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Warren was caught off guard by the accusation and said she didn't know what Diehl was talking about. She said she'd look into it. It turns out, a conservative group that calls itself the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust, or FACT, filed a complaint Monday against Warren and Senator Kamala Harris of California for violating Senate ethics rules with fund-raising e-mails ahead of the final vote on Kavanaugh."
- "WBUR Poll: Warren Keeps Big Lead As Voters Want A Senator Who Will Stand Up To Trump," by Fred Thys, WBUR: "A new WBUR poll finds Sen. Elizabeth Warren maintaining a big lead over her Republican rival, state Rep. Geoff Diehl, in the 2018 race for her seat. The survey finds Warren leads Diehl 54 to 32 percent, with independent Shiva Ayyadurai polling at 6 percent. Warren drew a lot of criticism recently for releasing results of a DNA test that confirmed she has some American Indian ancestry — a claim she has long made."
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| FROM THE HUB |
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- "If 'Whitey' Bulger thought he was safe in W.Va. prison, he wasn't," by Kevin Cullen and Shelley Murphy, Boston Globe:"When James 'Whitey' Bulger, the infamous octogenarian Boston gangster, arrived at his new prison digs in West Virginia on Monday, he was probably tired from his long trip from a transit stop in Oklahoma, but he wouldn't necessarily have been nervous. It's unclear whether US Bureau of Prisons officials who made the decision to transfer Bulger to the US Penitentiary Hazelton and place him in the prison's general population, despite a recent spate of violence there and complaints of chronic understaffing, were aware that Bulger should have been concerned."
- "Boston Ballet project aims to lift women choreographers," by Lillian Brown, Boston Globe: "It's an issue as old as ballet itself: the lack of female choreographers in classical dance. Around the world, from the United States to England and Australia, it's true: While women choreographers have thrived in modern and contemporary dance, they remain strikingly rare on most major ballet stages. It's especially puzzling when women typically outnumber men among ballet dancers, from girls stepping gingerly in their first pointe shoes to the tutu-filled ranks of a professional corps de ballet. Where are the prominent women choreographers graduating from their ranks? The gender gap is starting to be addressed."
- "MGH doctor says she was racially profiled on Delta flight to Boston," by Katie Camero, Boston Globe: "Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford was on Delta Flight 5935 flying from Indianapolis to Boston Tuesday night after a business meeting when the woman next to her started to convulse and hyperventilate. Stanford, an obesity medicine physician, scientist, educator, and policy maker at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, said her first instinct was to figure out how best to help the passenger. But attendants on the plane questioned her identity and qualifications several times as she tried to calm down the woman, even after she showed them her medical license more than once."
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| DAY IN COURT |
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- "FISCAL ALLIANCE LEAVES COURT WITHOUT INJUNCTION," by Matt Murphy, State House News Service: "With just days left until the 2018 elections, the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance left a federal courthouse Wednesday afternoon without an answer on whether it can air television ads this cycle without having to disclose its top five donors. The right-leaning non-profit has filed a lawsuit challenging donor disclosures and other advertising requirements that were part of 2010 and 2014 campaign finance laws."
- "Springfield Police Officer Gregg Bigda's fall from grace punctuated by quiet courtroom, jazz music," by Stephanie Barry, Springfield Republican: "One of the most dramatic crises in the police department's recent history peaked in a quiet courtroom Wednesday, with instrumental jazz music piped cloyingly through overhead speakers. Tarnished Springfield Police Officer Gregg A. Bigda was arrested along with a former colleague earlier in the day. Bigda is charged with three counts of deprivation of civil rights and one count of filing a false report in an internal investigation."
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| THE TSONGAS ARENA |
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- "In 3rd District, clear choices on campaign funds," by Chris Lisinski, The Lowell Sun: "For voters in the 3rd Congressional District, the Nov. 6 election is in many ways a referendum on how political campaigns are financed. Question 2 on the ballot, brought forth by a petition, proposes a commission aimed at limiting the role of money in politics. The area's congressional race, too, renders the debate in clear terms: each of the three candidates offers a different view."
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| THE CLARK CAUCUS |
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- "Unlikely Democratic House candidates are gaining momentum, even in GOP strongholds," by Jennifer Haberkorn, LA Times:"'The blue wave was never going to be double-digit wins. It was going to be close races tipping the way of Democrats,' said Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), vice chairwoman of recruitment for House Democrats. 'We always anticipated these would be tight races playing on a field where Democrats haven't been successful in a long time.'"
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| ABOVE THE FOLD |
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— Herald: "MOOKIE!" Globe: "TITLETOWN HAS THIS DUCKY THING DOWN," "The mystery deepens: Why was Bulger left in harm's way?" "Criminal saga ends in a most unlikely place." |
| THE LOCAL ANGLE |
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- "Worcester Art Museum gets $600K grant to strengthen partnerships," by Prithvi G. Tikhe, Worcester Telegram & Gazette:"The Worcester Art Museum is getting a $600,000 grant from the Barr-Klarman Massachusetts Arts Initiative. The grant will enable the museum to invest in long-term financial stability and strengthen community partnerships for artistic and public programs, museum officials said. Founded in 1898, WAM is the second largest art museum in New England."
HAPPY BIRTHDAY - to Molly Horan, V.P. for communications and public affairs at Liberty Square Group; and Siri Uotila.
Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.
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