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GOOD MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. One more day!
NEW CLOUT IN THE HOUSE? — Massachusetts will be in "good shape" if Democrats flip the House tomorrow, Rep. Jim McGovern said at a campaign event in Worcester yesterday. And he's got a point. If Democrats regain the majority like the polls suggest, the state delegation is going to have some serious clout.
Rep. Richard Neal is in line to become chairman of the powerful House Committee on Ways and Means, meaning the Springfield lawmaker would hold the keys to the government's revenue raising. That means the hot button issues of this election cycle — taxes, tariffs, Social Security, unemployment and Medicare — will be under Neal's jurisdiction in the House.
McGovern is poised to become chairman of the House Rules Committee. That means he'd be in charge of which bills come to the floor for a vote. And because Democrats have their eyes on everything from immigration, to health care, to gun reform, to money in politics, some pivotal bills would be coming down the pike.
Rep. Katherine Clark is running for the number five leadership spot. Her recruitment role for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee means she'd be credited with playing a key role in building the new majority — and she'd have relationships with many of the incoming freshmen in what could be a sizable and influential class.
And then we've got the younger rising stars of the delegation — Rep. Seth Moulton, Rep. Joe Kennedy III and Democrat Ayanna Pressley , set to win the 7th District seat on Tuesday amid national attention.
Moulton has been minting money for candidates via his leadership PAC (his Serve America PAC has raised the third-highest total among Democrats this cycle), and if the candidates stumping on ousting Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi are successful tomorrow and stay true to their word, he'll have some company in his push to shed the old guard in the House.
Kennedy, by virtue of his famous last name and his willingness to speak out on national issues, isn't going anywhere. He's spent the fall crisscrossing the country for Democrats in tight races. He's already a key player in the party — Democrats tapped him to give the State of the Union rebuttal speech in January.
And although she's played her cards close to the vest, campaigning primarily in-state and focusing less on national news appearances, it's hard to forget the kind of lightning in a bottle Pressley captured in September. A five-person television crew profiling Pressley waited for her to finish snapping iPhone photos and talking to supporters at a canvass event Sunday afternoon for the Democrat trying to unseat state Rep. Jim Lyons, Tram Nguyen, in North Andover. After the votes are counted Tuesday night, Pressley's first order of business is crafting "inclusive" transition and congressional teams, she told me. Well, after a nap, she said.
THE POLLING SKEPTICS — Should we trust the polls? Jay Gonzalez, for one, says no. Stumping at a get out the vote event in Worcester, the Democratic candidate for governor, who is very, very down in the polls compared to Gov. Charlie Baker, had a message on Sunday — don't listen to the numbers.
"As recent elections have shown us, polls and money aren't what decide them. Polls have been way off. Pundits are way off," Gonzalez told reporters. "I am really confident we're going to surprise a lot of people on Tuesday."
At that same event in Worcester, Attorney General Maura Healey looked back on her 2010 upset. "The polls had me down double digits a week out from the election. I was not the favorite candidate in the polls. The establishment had written me off, there was a whole bunch of money on the other side," Healey said. "Election day came and we won we own big." Healey did crush Warren Tolman in the primary for AG in 2010. She got 62 percent of the vote and he picked up 38 percent.
Ayanna Pressley beat two-decade Rep. Mike Capuano by 17 points in September. Polls conducted a month out from the election had her down by a steady 13 points. "These polls can't capture the electorate that is being expanded in response to the current climate in Washington and what is happening in our country," Pressley told reporters in North Andover on Sunday.
Another candidate hoping she can beat the odds and capture a shifting electorate is progressive Democrat Tram Nguyen, who is gunning for conservative state Rep. Jim Lyons' seat to represent North Andover, Andover, Tewksbury and Boxford. The 2016 election and the Women's March were a turning point for her, Nguyen told me on Sunday night, and she's trying to turn out voters who feel the same way.
"We're trying to bring out people who are now just getting interested in local politics. We're targeting groups who have never come out before," Nguyen said, adding several political groups sprung up in the district after the 2016 election. "Many of these organizations are made up of more women who are now looking at politics and realizing 'Wow, this really does have a very big impact on my life. I should start paying attention.'"
Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: smurray@politico.com.
TODAY - Gov. Charlie Baker, Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito and state Rep. David Nangle meet with voters at the Owl Diner in Lowell. Baker and First Lady Lauren Baker attend a hometown rally in Swampscott. Senate GOP candidate Geoff Diehl is on the "Phil Paleologos Show."
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Rep. Seth Moulton, Gonzalez and Auditor Suzanne Bump get out the vote in Lynn. State Sen. Adam Hindsannounces recipients of FY19 rural school aid in Dalton with state Rep. Paul Mark and state Rep. Steve Kulik. Attorney General Maura Healey and candidate for congress Ayanna Pressley rally in Roxbury.
Warren, Rep. Niki Tsongas and candidate for congress Lori Trahan rally in Hudson. Diehl rallies in Abington. Secretary of State William Galvin holds a pre-election press availability. Rep. Joe Kennedy III, Trahan and state Rep. Juana Matias hold a canvass kickoff in Lawrence.
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 | DATELINE BEACON HILL |
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- "Charlie Baker and the incredible vanishing gender gap," by Steve Koczela and Richard Parr, CommonWealth Magazine: "Charlie Baker has bridged the gender gap. Nationally, Democratic women are fleeing the Republican party, threatening to swing a host of offices to Democrats, while men still tilt right. But women here in Massachusetts prefer Baker over Democrat Jay Gonzalez by about the same margins as do male voters. This was by no means expected. Baker's two previous runs for governor featured two of the largest gender gaps in recent statewide electoral history."
- "Democrats seek to increase dominance in Legislature," by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: "DEMOCRATS, who already dominate the state Legislature, have a good chance of picking up more seats on Tuesday. The numbers are in their favor. Of the 200 seats in the Legislature, only 72, or 36 percent, are being contested. That means 115 Democrats and 13 Republicans are already assured of victory on Tuesday. In the contested races, Democrats have a big financial advantage, outspending their Republican rivals by an overall 2-1 margin, according to campaign finance reports through October 19."
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| ON THE STUMP |
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- "Here are the big policy differences between the candidates for Mass. governor, Charlie Baker and Jay Gonzalez," by Joshua Miller, Boston Globe: "Not good enough, or pretty good? Distilled down, those are the arguments that the challenger and the incumbent, respectively, are making in their campaigns to be governor of Massachusetts for the next four years. It's the choice they're putting before voters."
- "Teacher union backing of Weymouth Republican riles new super PAC," by Michael Jonas, CommonWealth Magazine: A SCHISM WITHIN the Democratic Party that has long divided teachers unions and education reform advocates is playing out in unusual fashion this fall in a state Senate race — with a Republican incumbent at the center of the showdown. Patrick O'Connor, a Republican elected in a special election two-and-a-half years ago to a Weymouth-based Senate seat, has racked up endorsements from both statewide teachers unions as well as the Boston Teachers Union based on his support for school funding and opposition to charter school expansion. But a new super PAC formed by Democratic education activists is taking aim at O'Connor — and ripping the unions for backing a candidate the PAC organizers say betrays progressives values on everything from gun control to transgender rights."
- "Is Massachusetts 'an island'? Voters debate role of Trump in race for governor," by Matt Stout, Boston Globe: "Spend our money wisely. Make the trains run on time. Fight the opioid crisis. Fight Trump! The bar Massachusetts' voters have set for their next governor is at once lofty and grounded, both varied and shared. And, well, it may just be plain and simple. 'Don't do too much damage,' said Florence Curran, a 79-year-old Reading resident and unenrolled voter, who admits there isn't a hot-button issue that is driving her choice for governor."
- "Just off the road, Warren returns to Mass. for final campaign swing in race with Diehl," by Victoria McGrane, Jeremy C. Fox and Matt Stout, Boston Globe: "With three days until Massachusetts voters head to the polls to decide whether she deserves another six years in Washington, Senator Elizabeth Warren bounded onto a small wooden platform and raised her arms in the air. 'Hello Brockton! Is Brockton ready to vote? Is Brockton ready to turn out the vote?' she shouted on Saturday to supporters packed into the narrow campaign office, the first stop in a three-day campaign push that has Warren traveling the length and breadth of the state before she faces Republican Geoff Diehl on the Nov. 6 ballot."
- "2018 election: Massachusetts lawmakers stump for Democrats across US," by Shannon Young, Springfield Republican:"Although nearly every member of Massachusetts' congressional delegation will be on the ballot this fall, several of the state's federal lawmakers have spent the final weeks leading up to the November midterm election campaigning not just for themselves, but also for other Democrats across the United States."
- "Gubernatorial candidates rally for votes as election draws near," by Matt Stout and Jeremy C. Fox, Boston Globe: "Holding court in her hometown, Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito recalled how four years ago, it was the 47,000-vote margin she and Governor Charlie Baker enjoyed in Worcester County that helped propel them in a race decided by just 40,000 statewide. Polito, Baker said, was being kind. ... Now seeking a second term, Baker returned to the state GOP's home base Saturday, rallying support three days ahead of Election Day while his challenger, Jay Gonzalez, crisscrossed the state in his own slate of meet-and-greets and get-out-the-vote rallies."
- "Most candidates pass on Vote Smart survey," by Christian M. Wade, Gloucester Daily Times: "A majority of candidates running for state and federal offices in Massachusetts lack the 'political courage' to state their views on major issues, according to a nonpartisan voter education group. The Vote Smart 'political courage' survey, which has been conducted every election cycle for more than two decades, asks candidates running for governor, state legislatures and Congress to outline their positions on issues including campaign finance, gun control, abortion, climate change and immigration. But nationally, and locally, participation has dwindled in recent years, according to Peter McLaughlin, the group's director of elections and candidates."
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| MOULTON MATTERS |
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- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: "Vote for Liberty, Vote for Equality: Vote Yes on 3," by Rep. Seth Moulton and Alexandra Chandler, Medium: "One of us — Seth — is a male member of Congress, the other — Alexandra — a former candidate for Congress who is a transgender woman. Seth lives in Salem and Alexandra lives in Haverhill. Seth served our country in the Marine Corps and Alexandra served as a civilian intelligence analyst at the Office of Naval Intelligence. Both of us will be voting Yes on Ballot Question 3 this November, and you should too."
- "Could Military Veterans Change More Than Control of Congress?" by Evan Osnos, The New Yorker: "In the final days before the midterm elections, the weekday crowd at the Veterans of Foreign Wars post in Morris Plains, New Jersey, consisted mostly of retired men and their wives. The United States has been at war for seventeen years, but, at the V.F.W., the events of the previous century still loom largest; the men's room is adorned with stickers about Hanoi Jane. On Friday, Mikie Sherrill, a forty-six-year-old former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, took a seat in the front of the room and prepared to make her case. ... Sherrill, like several dozen veterans running this year, is betting that her emphasis on public service will attract the support of voters who are in despair at the selfishness and rigidity of Washington politics."
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| TRUMPACHUSETTS |
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- "Trump casts long shadow over midterm elections," by Christian M. Wade, The Eagle-Tribune: "President Donald Trump won't be on the ticket in next Tuesday's midterm elections, but his presence will be felt up and down the ballot. While deep-blue Massachusetts isn't considered a battleground in the fight for control of Congress, Trump's long shadow has hovered over marquee races for state and federal offices."
- "It's a bird, it's a plane. No, it's baby Trump." by Lucas Phillips, Boston Globe: "Twenty feet tall, 13 feet wide. Orange, with a flop of blond on top. On Sunday, Trump came to Boston ahead of the midterms in the form of a giant, diaper-clad inflatable infant with smartphone in hand. 'It's not how I would want to be portrayed myself,' said Lauren Piraino, the organizer of an event that brought the Trump Baby Balloon, a satirical portrayal of President Donald Trump, to Boston for the first time."
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| FROM THE HUB |
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- "John Marttila, 'savant' among campaign managers, dies at 78," by Bryan Marquard, Boston Globe: "Fresh from his disillusionment with the Republican Party, John Marttila left his hometown of Detroit and moved to Boston in 1970 to manage the congressional campaign of a longshot Democrat. By using innovative approaches to engineer the victory of the Rev. Robert Drinan, and by turning the Jesuit priest's opposition to the Vietnam War into an asset, Mr. Marttila rewrote the Democratic Party's campaign playbook in Massachusetts and beyond in ways that resonate nearly four decades later."
- "Losing Laura," by Peter DeMarco, Boston Globe: "My wife, Laura Levis, did everything she could to save herself when the asthma attack began. She went to Somerville Hospital and called 911, too. How could she have been left to die just outside the emergency room?"
- "Mass. business leaders see transportation as key election issue," by Ellie French, Boston Business Journal: "As campaigns barrel toward Election Day, there are a few key issues business leaders in Massachusetts are watching closely, with transportation and the state's economic growth topping the list."
- "Papa Gino's abruptly closes numerous pizzeria locations," by Laurel J. Sweet, Boston Herald: "Papa Gino's pizzeria has abruptly closed several locations. Patrons and workers at Papa Gino's locations have been tweeting Sunday about the surprise closures, which included a number of locations in the Boston-area and neighboring New Hampshire."
- "For some, rollout pace for recreational pot in Massachusetts carries sense of deja vu," by Sophia Eppolito, Berkshire Eagle:"Nearly two years after recreational marijuana was legalized in the commonwealth, experts are concerned that the rollout will be caught up in delays and red tape like medical marijuana, another voter-approved measure four years earlier. When Massachusetts voters approved Question 4 in 2016, they established a Jan. 1, 2018, launch date for sales. That was pushed back by legislators to July 1. By mid-October, the Cannabis Control Commission created by the law had issued only six final licenses — two for retail, two for independent testing labs, a fifth for cultivation and one for product manufacturing. And they still have several steps to take before they will be approved to open."
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| ABOVE THE FOLD |
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— Herald: "NOW HEAR THIS!" — Globe: "Hackers targeting election networks," "Trump and Obama make a flurry of final pitches." |
| BEHIND THE TOFU CURTAIN |
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- "Demanding better: A Florence nonprofit is trying to fix democracy with help from the likes of Jennifer Lawrence," by Greta Jochem, Daily Hampshire Gazette: "Josh Silver has a big goal: He wants to pass 24 anti-gerrymandering, ranked choice voting and campaign finance reforms with Represent.Us, a Florence-based nonprofit that works on anti-corruption policies across the country. '24 states, 24 major state laws by 2024,' said Silver, the director and co-founder of the non-partisan nonprofit. 'Which is ambitious as hell — I get it. But we think the vision has to be commensurate with the gravity of the crisis.'"
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| THE LOCAL ANGLE |
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- "Two injured in partial roof collapse in Allston," by Brooks Sutherland, Boston Herald: "A section of facade above an Allston restaurant collapsed this afternoon, injuring two, one critically. The Boston Fire Department responded to the report of the collapse on Harvard Avenue, at the location of the Common Ground Bar and Grill. Deputy fire Chief Steve McNeil said his department helped six people evacuate out the rear of the building following the collapse."
HAPPY BIRTHDAY - to Richard Parker, lecturer in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY - to Barbara Zheutlin , who celebrated Saturday.
DID THE HOME TEAM WIN? Yes! The Patriots beat the Packers 31-17.
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